Macedonia: a Montenegrin scenario of seizing power not ruled out

12.12.2016
Macedonia

The Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), led by former Prime Minister Nikolai Gruevski, and the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia, the leader of which is Zoran Zaev, have declared their victory in the early elections held in Macedonia yesterday.

An old dispute

In this case, after processing 98% of ballots, the VMRO-DPMNE is reported to have surpassed its opponents by some percentage points. The coalition of Nikola Gruevski gained nearly 38% of votes, while the party of Zoran Zaev won about 35.5%.

These two organizations have proclaimed their victory and urged supporters to celebrate in the streets in front of their headquarters. Accordingly, civil conflicts are not excluded, as happened a few years ago.

The Albanian factor

At the same time, the four Albanian parties are going to take nearly 25 seats in the parliament. These parties are likely to support the pro-NATO course of Zoran Zaev, like the national minorities (Albanians and Bosniaks) in Montenegro have done.

Obviously, Albanians support the West and NATO because of the support they received over the course of the secession of Kosovo. Macedonian Albanians living mostly in the northwest and west of the country have for a long time harbored similar plans to establish autonomy and subsequently create a "Greater Albania". However, in 2015, when they had the chance to take advantage of instability in Macedonia, Zaev’s Western bosses banned the use of the Albanian factor.

The failure of Western policy

Nevertheless, regardless of who will form the next government, the pro-Western course of Macedonia is doomed to completely fail. The country’s NATO membership is blocked by Greece because of the name dispute and the EU will not accept one of the poorest countries in Europe with an ongoing political crisis.

Meanwhile, the largest exporter to Macedonia is Russia, which is actively developing cultural ties as well.

European intrigue

Now, however, the situation could somehow change. The early elections were held in connection with the agreement between bitter rivals, Gruevski and Zaev, the mediator of which was the European Union.  EU leaders don’t hide the fact that they consider Macedonia a "new Turkey”, i.e., a country designed to deter migrants in exchange for promises or slight preferences. 

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