MIGHT THE U.S. NEED TO SHIFT TO MULTIPOLARITY?

For as long as I can remember capitalism has been in its terminal phase and is on the verge of collapse. It has not happened, and it is unlikely to happen now. Geopolitical change is not going to change the economic model.

Briefly summarising the global economy, it should be remembered that until before the First World War, the industrialized powers occupied their mining colonies for the functioning of the industrial and commercial economic system. That is, if a country needed coal, the first solution was to occupy a mining area from which to extract it. The process of change after the Second World War changed; the power that emerged the strongest was to set up puppet governments around the world where all the other powers could trade freely.

The dynamic of colonization shifted to one of open trade under the rules imposed by the power that emerged from the war. Likewise, the transport of goods across the seas was safe ubecause the US Navy was deployed all over the planet. The continental power that was left standing took over maritime control from its opponent, took over its main international organizations, and took over its model of international trade. Admittedly, the international organizations created by the USSR lacked the power that emanated from Western institutions. Inside the USSR, one could have different rhetoric and practices, but outside it was governed by "shared" rules derived from the liberal philosophy of the United States.

America was the main donor of the institutions that emerged after the war and was their main financier. The international system was based mainly on the financing and ideology of a single country, with all the others dancing to its tune. The industrial economy gave way to the economy of services and finance, digital, automation of relations between companies and institutions. This shift to the Technotronic era, in Zbigniew Brzezinski's terms, was seized upon by powers such as China, which developed by abandoning its communist production system and opening an Economic Exclusion Zone; the industrial economy moved to the other side of the ocean.

When we are talking about global economies, we must be clear about the distinction between an industrial economy and a technified economy. Today it seems that the only economy developing both types of models is China.

For many years the financial power of the United States has borne the lion's share of the cost of the global institutional system and of bilateral development assistance. The US is an exhausted country that can no longer maintain the system it created, and from this point of view it is the country most interested in burden sharing, but it will find it difficult to share decision-making power.

History has always ridden over peoples and nations, angrily sinking its spurs into their loins, and when they have surrendered after serving its whims, History has throw them to the ditch while looking for another victim to ride.

In recent decades different international associations, regional or global, have emerged, and the US has been watching on the sidelines of their development. One of these is BRICS, which some see as the cornerstone of the new geopolitical order, the new multipolar world. In principle, BRICS has chosen not to confront the international institutional system and adheres to the regulations of major organizations, such as the UN Charter.  It seems that for the moment the organisation is avoiding the capricious will of history and does not want to see its loin smashed.

With this dynamic, the international system would remain under the same ideological prism, but with shared management burdens. However, the decision-making center of global politics would be the UN, and debates and struggles over decision-making would continue within this institution. So far, the multipolar order does not appear to be disruptive, it appears reformist. If this view prevails the shift to multipolarity might be under agreement. Global governance would be more consensual between different poles of power, in concordance with economics powers, both industrial and technified. However, we cannot say which will be the driving philosophy behind the decisions to relate to each other, what will be the decisions to govern the lives of their citizens, or where will be the balance of power between different poles. We know that the tectonic plates of geopolitics are moving, and we know why, but we do not know what their final position will be.