Ankara, Moscow, Tehran: Difficult path to stability

20.12.2016
Russia

Ministers of Defence and Foreign Affairs of Russia, Turkey and Iran are going to meet today in Moscow. They will discuss the issue of the Syrian settlement. In addition, the terrorist attack will certainly leave its mark on the meeting.

Talks

The summit in the new 3 + 3 format was earlier announced, but the date had been several times postponed. Moreover, after yesterday's murder it could be cancelled all together. However, the fact that the parties did decide to hold talks against such grave background shows a sincere interest for all countries in the final settlement of the Syrian issue.

The meaning

The summit of specialized agencies’ heads of three countries, which are “really influencing  the situation in Syria”, may dramatically change the balance of power in the region. Moreover, the preliminary work was very actively carried out, and three leaders, having regularly called, Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani came at last to some common point, where the last hours of the Syrian terrorists can now be counted. That’s why, yesterday's horrifying CIA operation was carried out, that the Russian Foreign Ministry has designated as a terrorist act - the murder of Russian Ambassador to Turkey.

On the other hand, this tragic event will give Moscow the right to insist on expanding the powers of the Russian special services in Turkey, while Tehran and Damascus have supported a different sort of agreement.

Expectations

Commenting on possible outcomes of the summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov avoided specifics, saying that “expectations are to talk in detail, specifically with someone who can really influence the improvement of the situation on the ground in the circumstances, where our Western partners do more rhetoric, propaganda and do not affect those who listen to them”.

But in fact, a serious effort can really be expected, especially after the reaction of Ankara on the attack occurred yesterday and the words of Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu's readiness to meet with Vladimir Putin to inform him about the progress of investigations.

In addition, some experts, including a source for Katehon, located in Syria thinks that Turkey is likely to revise its position on supporting “the Syrian opposition”, which again can fundamentally change the whole situation.

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