Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends of 2015 and Forecasts for 2016

In 2015, Africa continued to be the poorest and the most dangerous region of the world. In addition to the dangerous diseases and the AIDS epidemic, the region suffers from numerous civil wars, tribal and religious conflicts, accompanied by horrific acts of brutality, cannibalism, slavery of women and children, and slave trade. The sovereignty of the majority of countries is still purely nominal, large multinational corporations and foreign governments continue to fight for control over the mineral rich areas.

Strengthening Chinese Influence

2015 was marked by a continuation of the trend of a strengthening Chinese influence in the broader region. In December of 2015, Johannesburg held the China-Africa Cooperation Summit, which adopted several programs that demonstrate the trend of increasing Chinese presence in the region. The summit adopted the Johannesburg Declaration and the 2018 Plan of Implementation. The document shows in particular that China has rejected its previous strategy, based only on bilateral relations, and seeks to see the institution of its African policy of African regional integration, in particular through the African Union.

The main tasks of China in Africa include the following areas:

1.      Continent industrialization prolongation. China will continue the construction of industrial parks and will assist African countries in the technicians’ trainings.

2.      African agriculture development;

3.      Transport infrastructure development, including roads, railways, aviation, ports, power grids and telecommunications;

4.      Free trade agreements with African states;

5.      Development of environmentally friendly technologies;

6.      Fight against poverty in Africa;

7.      Continent-wide development of medicines and medical research;

8.      Development of cultural ties and cultural exchanges;

9.      Debt write-off for the poorest African countries, whose payment period ends in 2015;

10.  Security cooperation. China will support the establishment and operation of the African Standby Force.

What is peculiar about the Chinese approach to Africa is that the Chinese, unlike Europeans and Americans, don’t connect cooperation with the development of liberal democratic institutions, and interact even with authoritarian regimes. Another advantage of African cooperation with China is that China offers investment and implementation of infrastructure projects cheaper than their Western competitors. It also offers loans at low interest rates to countries with low credit rating, receiving in exchange an exclusive right to develop oil and other fields.

It is significant that, this year, China decided to build the first overseas naval base, and it will be situated in Africa, in Djibouti.

Horn of Africa region

In 2015, increased Chinese presence was particularly perceptible in Djibouti, a small country in eastern Africa. Despite the lack of natural resources, the country has a significant strategic importance, as it together with Yemen closes access from the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean through the Bab-el-Mandeb. Djibouti already has American and French military base and a small Japanese contingent. For China, it is important to gain a foothold in the region to control the sea route linking the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.

At the China-Africa Cooperation Summit in Johannesburg, China announced the establishment of its own naval base in the East African country. The official pretext is the fight against Somali pirates, but in fact, the Chinese base in Djibouti is an important component of the fulfillment of the the Maritime Silk Road project that will connect China with West Eurasia through the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, and the Suez.

In December of 2015, after the announcement of China's plans, Djibouti faced a collision between supporters and opponents of the current President Ismail Omar Guelleh. The opposition Union for National Salvation and the United States used this incident to accuse the country's authorities of corruption and impropriety. The US urged the Djibouti leadership to respect the opposition, to allow it to hold peaceful meetings and exercise freedom of speech.

The largest country in the region, Somalia, continued to be one of the most problematic areas of Africa. There is still no unified statehood in the country. A serious problem is the local radical Islamists' expansion to other countries. In 2015, the Somali militant groups, al-Shabaab, attacked the building of the University College in the Kenyan town of Garissa, killing 147 people. The Al-Shabaab method is the use of modern network technology, music, the Internet, and resembles the ISIS style. Some leaders of the factions swore allegiance to the Islamic state.

Sudan and Eritrea in Yemen war

In 2015, Sudan continued to move towards a closer union with Saudi Arabia. Despite the persistence of anti-Western rhetoric, with the Omar Hassan al-Bashir regime managing to establish good relations with Russia and China, Sudan in fact is an ally of the main partner of the Atlanticist powers in the Islamic world, Saudi Arabia. Sudan actively participated in the Saudi intervention in Yemen. In 2015, the relations with South Sudan remained stable during the conflict. The Sudanese leaders reached an agreement with the separatists in Darfur, the region of the Blue Nile, and South Kordofan, on the six month armistice that ended in April 2016.

Eritrea supported the Gulf States in the Yemen war too, providing its airspace and territorial waters for the anti- Houthi coalition. According to some estimates, about 400 soldiers from the African country took part in the Yemeni war. Eritrea is under the UN Security Council sanctions on charges of supporting the Al-Shabaab militants in Somalia.

French West Africa

In Western Africa, one of the 2015 trends was the increase of Islamic extremism. An attack on a hotel in Mali, on November 20th, 2015, when more than 30 people were killed, was carried out by Al-Murabitun terrorists groups who had sworn allegiance to ISIS. The militants of the largest Islamist organization in the Maghreb and the Western Sahel, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and militants of the Macina Liberation Front (Islamists of the Fulani ethnic group) announced their involvement in the terrorist attack.

This year, Mali faced more than twelve terrorist attacks, besides the already mentioned organizations, the militants of the Ansar al-Din Islamist group, being active in areas populated by Tuaregs.

Extremist groups announced that their main task was the elimination of the French neo-colonialism in the region. Most of the former French colonies in West Africa are still politically and economically dependent on their former colonial master. If it is necessary, the French organization will promote coups  or directly participate in them, as was the case in 2011 in Cote d'Ivoire.

In 2015, in Cote d’Ivoire, President Alassane Ouattara was re-elected for the second term; he came to power after the 2010 elections and, with the help of the armed intervention of French troops, his predecessor was overthrown. France therefore once again consolidated its control over the former colony, rich in oil and natural gas, as well as diamonds.

In the neighboring country, Burkina Faso, where in 2014 there was a coup with approval of the United States and France, in September of 2015, another attempt at a military coup took place, but it was not successful, as it was sharply criticized by France. On November 29th, the new president Kabore, a senior functionary of the former regime, was elected.

Nigeria

Nigeria is unstable too. In 2015, the government troops failed to prevail over the Boko Haram group. The Boko Haram militants entrenched in the north-eastern country states, capturing more than 70% of Borno state after the fight and massacre in January 2015. Terrorists seized a multinational force's military base, which would have to fight against them. In the same month, the Boko Haram militants attacked a military base in neighboring Cameroon.

The joint efforts of the armed forces of Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon deployed offensive against the Boko Haram, as a result they were able to regain some of the areas previously occupied by militants. However, despite the statements made by Nigerian officials, Boko Haram managed to maintain combat capability. This year, the group made numerous terrorist attacks in Nigeria, Chad, Niger, Cameroon.

March 31, 2015, in the general elections in Nigeria, the former general Muhammadu Buhari, who has held this post from 1983 to 1985, won. Previously he came to power after a coup. In 2015, the Sunni Muslim Bukhari defeated the current Christian President Goodluck Jonathan. The elections demonstrated the existing religious division of the Nigerian nation, natural for countries based on diverse ethnic elements of former British colonial institutions. Bukhari was elected mainly by northern Muslim states, Jonathan – by the southern Christian one.

The Nigerian leadership under Bukhari consisted almost entirely of Sunni Muslims.  People from the north of the country are the source of anti-Christian hostility. The Christians live in the most developed, the oil-producing southern states. The fall in oil prices seriously affected Nigerian stability as the most powerful country in the region and the largest oil-producing African country. With falling revenues, which are mostly spent on security maintenance and the fight against the Boko Haram, the redistribution of income against oil-producing areas of the north contributes to the revival of separatist tends.

Another Nigerian security issue could be the conflict between the security forces of Nigeria and the Nigerian Shiites, represented primarily by the Islamic Movement of Nigeria. On December 12th, 2015, Nigerian troops killed up to 1000 Shiites in Zaria, a northern town. On December 13th, Ibrahim Zakzaky, the Nigerian Shiite spiritual leader, was arrested. During the arrest, he was shot multiple time. His fate is unknown. One of his wives and two sons were killed.

It led to numerous peaceful Nigerian Shiite protests. Iranian authorities demanded an explanation from the country's leadership.

The Shiite community is actively engaged in proselytizing among Muslims in northern Nigeria, previously used as Iran's soft power. Moreover, the Shiite community in Nigeria became the largest in Africa (about one million people). In the north of Nigeria Saudi Arabia also seeks to extend its influence, funding the mosques and construction of Islamic centers in the country. The United States actively opposed the strengthening of Iranian influence in Nigeria.

In December 2015, President Buhari entered the Saudi coalition against terrorism which rather is directed against the pro-Iranian Shiite movements than the Wahhabi radicals. The Shiite massacre followed these events. Now we can expect a serious confrontation of Nigeria and Iran, and the opening of the African Front in the Saudi-Iranian confrontation.

Democratic Republic of Congo

A stagnant conflict in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo continued to be one of the factors that destabilizes the situation in Africa. In 2015, the action of the central government against the rebels in the region continued. In 2013 the DRC Government led a military action against the rebel Tutsis in the North Kivu province, supported from Rwanda, and then in 2015 it took measures against the Hutu rebel groups in South Kivu. In addition to the repercussions of the conflict between Tutsis and Hutus, which was accompanied by genocide on both sides throughout the second half of the 20th century, the conflict in eastern Congo has an economic influence; the region has significant reserves of gold, tin and tantalum.

The eastern part of the Republic of the Congo (the Kivu region) is the farthest from the capital, Kinshasa, and has direct borders with Rwanda and Burundi, being geographically and ethnically like these two countries, and a part of the Great Lakes region.

Since 1996, the long-term civil war, with varying intensity, transformed the eastern part of the Congo territory, ruled by military forces, where the risk of a new large-scale conflict always exists. Cannibalism, mass murder and rape became a part of daily life in the country. The world's largest UN peacekeepers contingent (22.000 people) can’t normalize the situation.

Burundi Crisis

In the neighboring East African country, Burundi, the 2015 year was marked by destabilization of the country, which led the African Union to introduce a peacekeeping contingent to the country in December 2015. Despite the small size, the destabilized relations in Burundi can cause a chain reaction in neighboring Rwanda, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as it was after the Tutsi genocide in Rwanda, which became the trigger of the second Congo (African World) War.

In April 2015, it that the decision of incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza to run for the third time for the presidency, was announced. In response, the opposition organized mass protests in the capital, Bujumbura. May 13th-18th, 2015, there was a coup attempt against the president, which failed. The June 21st elections, which opposition candidates boycotted, were held. A number of Nkurunziza officials left the country for Belgium, accusing their former ally of usurping power. Before and after the elections, the country faced mass protests, reminiscent of the Color Revolutions, and a number of opposition activists and followers of the president were killed. The protesters were supported by the US Embassy. Taking active part in protests, the students of Burundi University camped next to the American Embassy, hoping that the USA will protect them. After the election, in the northern part of the country, the neighboring pro-American Rwanda rebels conducted raids.

On December 11th, 2015б the rebels attacked the capital, and killed more than 87 people. After the raid, the African Union announced plans to deploy a peacekeeping mission in Burundi. In response, the leadership announced that it will regard the peacekeeper's mission on its territory as aggression. The opposition forces announced the creation of a military group , the Republican Forces of Burundi.

The conflict in Burundi has obvious traits of the Color Revolution, which are traditionally used to overthrow a regime that the United States dislikes. Despite the fact that the economy of Burundi is now largely dependent on the coffee export, the country has natural resources that are of interest to foreign actors. This is primarily nickel fields (Burundi is the 10th world country in this domain), the current government intends to attract China to develop it.

China plans to build a railway to link Burundi with Indian Ocean ports in Tanzania. The project allows for Chinese expansion in the DRC, as the country is close to Burundi.

The possible Chinese expansion in the region forces the US and its allies, that supports the opponents of the current regime, to take measures.

The African Union is interested in preventing a civil war in the country and in maintaining in Burundi a 5000 strong contingent in the AU peacekeeping mission in Somalia, and therefore is ready to occupy Burundi in order to prevent the conflict from spreading, and will use troops in the most important region of the Horn of Africa.

The question of humanitarian intervention under the UN flag is raised repeatedly in the Security Council, but China, with Russian support, strongly opposes it, calling it a violation of Burundi's sovereignty.

Conflict in Central African Republic

In 2015, the interim government of the Central African Republic postponed the general election several times.  This move was aimed at ending the ongoing civil war between groups of Christians and Muslims.

On December 30th, 2015, the Central African Republic hosted the first round of presidential and parliamentary elections. The former French colony de facto ceased to exist as a unified and independent state. There is a relentless civil war between the Christian and Muslim groups, who control most of the CAR.

The current civil war in the Central African Republic began with Selek Muslim group's campaign in the capital, Bamako, in December of 2012. The Muslims, with the support of coreligionists from the neighboring Republic of Chad, seized power in the country and immediately started a terror campaign against Christians. In turn, they created an armed resistance, Anti-Balaka (anti-machete), and began to massacre the Muslim population. The religious conflict between these groups which belong to both of the world's largest religions continues, despite the previously signed armistice agreement. The war is accompanied by acts of cannibalism and civilians massacres on both sides.

The elections were repeatedly postponed since February 2015, because the interim government, established under the UN mediation with the participation of France and the AU, could not provide the minimal safety and logistics to carry them out, for example, the printing of ballots and their delivery to polling stations.

There are troops of the African Union and France in the country which, nevertheless, cannot stop the violence in the country.

The Central African Republic is important to the world powers as a source of minerals: uranium, diamonds, gold and oil. Traditionally, the country was under total control of its former colonial country, France. One of the reasons why France didn’t oppose the coup in 2012 was the plans of previous government to allow the CAR's oil and uranium deposits to be developed by China and South Africa. The United States tries to participate in the conflict resolution because it is interested in oil development. The US as well as France seeks to contain China's expansion into Central Africa. China can’t strengthen its position in the CAR with the ongoing massacre.

Despite the elections, the situation in the country is not peaceful, any different system of government actually does not work. There are no effective control mechanisms. The power of the central government does not extend beyond a few Bamako blocks. In many parts of the capital, the real power is in the hands of militia leaders.

South Africa

The 2015 year brought instability in South Africa. The country faced two challenges: the growing number of migrants from other African countries, which caused riots, and the first attempts at organizing a color revolution against the President Jacob Zuma. South Africa is a BRICS member that challenges the US hegemony and its allies by offering a multi-polar alternative. In addition, South Africa is the most important conduit of Chinese influence in Africa. Not surprisingly, the US did not abandon their attempts to change the country's leadership to a more pro-American one.

In February 2015, riots broke out in the country, unsatisfied with the influx of immigrants into the country. Between 2006 and 2012, South Africa was the first in the world in numbers of applications for asylum. In April the riots repeated. Then Goodluck Zwelithini, the king of the Zulu tribe, called for a cleansing of the country from foreigners.

In October 2015, students protests started in the country. The formal reason for these was the increase of tuition fees. However, the protesters themselves declared their dissatisfaction with the Zuma regime and the fact that there is still inequality between blacks and whites, as well as between the majority black population and the new black elite, related to the ruling African National Congress. These are the largest protests in South Africa since the end of apartheid.

At the same time, last year, the opposition put forward new claims to the current president, accusing him of spending more than $20 million from the state budget to repair his own villa. Under the slogan of fighting against corruption, on September 30th, 2015, large-scale protests were organized in all cities of the country. South Africa's leading trade union, the National Union of Metalworkers, took an active part in the demonstrations, previously calling to changes to the country's government. The Democracy Works Project, funded by the American NED Foundation, was involved in it. An intelligence program, this and other protest movements in South Africa was the work of the left-liberal SWOP Institute (the Society, Work and Development Institute, originally the Sociology of Work Project) at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, working closely with Gene Sharp’s American Institute of Albert Einstein, the main developer of color revolution technologies.

Besides promoting the anti-corruption and anti-governmental slogans, the protesters pushed for the abandonment of the nuclear power plants construction, a large-scale project, the  implementation of which can establish  South Africa's energy independence.

Forecast for 2016

In 2016, sub-Saharan geopolitics will be determined by the following trends combined: the fight between the US and China for influence on the continent, France's push to maintain its sphere of influence in West Africa, the expansion of Islamist groups and terrorist activities in the Sahel, from the Horn of Africa to Nigeria, opening a new front for Iranian-Saudi confrontation in Nigeria, reanimation of longstanding ethnic and religious conflicts, American and British attempts to carry out a Color Revolution in South Africa.

Fight for Sudan and Eritrea between China and Wahhabi Gulf monarchies

China will continue to strengthen its position in the region. China remains the main ally of South Africa. The implementation of previously signed contracts and the provisions of the 2018 Johannesburg Plan of Implementation will face a number of difficulties primarily because of the US opposition, the old centers of influence in the former imperial countries (France and the UK), as well as Saudi Arabia competition in the Muslim countries.

China and the Gulf countries will start the fight for Sudan and Eritrea. These countries leaders cannot balance between two poles under the increasing confrontation between the United States and the Gulf, on the one hand, and Russia, Iran and China, on the other. The Saudis and their allies will do everything possible to push China out from the region neighboring the Arabian Peninsula. Sudan will continue to participate in the Saudi intervention in Yemen.

Saudi Arabia cannot cope with this task alone due to the continued drop in oil prices, and the difficulties with the country's budget. On the other hand, Qatar can take advantage of this struggle, first in alliance with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and then on its own, to weaken China's position.

On the one hand, the Qatari economy does not depend on oil and gas prices which can fluctuate. Therefore, Qatar won’t have the budget difficulties that its allies and rivals of the Gulf Cooperation Council will face inevitably next year. On the other hand, other Gulf countries as well as Qatar are interested in control over Sudan and the Arabic-speaking Red Sea coast, especially the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This involves active operations in Eritrea, as well as anti-China provocations in Djibouti.

Conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and in Djibouti

It is likely that, in order to undermine Chinese influence in Eritrea and prevent the Chinese project completion in Ethiopia in the future, the Wahhabi monarchy may start another Ethiopian-Eritrean conflict, where Somali Islamists could participate too. The conflict between the predominantly Christian Ethiopia and Muslim Eritrea will take place in the eastern part of Ethiopia, where related Somali Muslim tribes live.

Moreover, the conflict in Djibouti is expected to continue, and the US, organizing riots against the authoritarian leadership, as well as Qatar, supporting Islamist control over the Djibouti and Eritrea border, will oppose China. It should be remembered that Qatar under a UN mandate monitors the borders of both countries.

Relative conflict normalization in Sudan

Sudan will try to improve relations with Saudi Arabia to restore ties with the West, using the rebel movements in Darfur, the Blue Nile region, South Kordofan, to weaken the country. After the separation of South Sudan in 2011, the new state has all the Sudanese oil fields, and energy transportation ways remain in North Sudan; both countries are in conflict over the transit, which is also successfully used by the Atlanticists.

In April 2016, the six-month armistice between the government of Sudan and separatists of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement came to an end. It is expected that the negotiations will continue, although there might be outbreaks of violence on both sides.

Somalia

Somalia will not be able to overcome the ongoing civil war. The Transitional Federal Parliament mandate expires in 2016. However, the elections cannot be carried out in the country. Either way, the results will not have any influence on the future of the country

In 2016, the Somali al-Shabaab group will not be defeated. The extremists who declared their allegiance to the Islamic State organization, retain their influence and try to move the terrorist activity into Ethiopia and Kenya.

Sahel Destabilization

The Islamic extremists and Gulf countries supporting them will continue to fight for the creation of continuous line of the radical Islamists control in form Sahel to Eritrea in the east, from Mauritania in the west. Eritrea and North Sudan are almost entirely controlled by the Gulf monarchies. In Chad, Niger and Mali, the Islamist militants are active, especially Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, as well as groups loyal to the Islamic state. Usually, most of the population in these countries is Muslim. Unlike countries in North Africa, except Libya, the Sahel state structures are very weak. The ethnic composition in the countries is very complex, most of them have a disadvantaged ethnic group ready to perform under the flag of extremists. The largest of them are the Tuaregs, warriors who live in Sahel, but are second-class citizens in all countries, except Mauritania. The continuing desertification in the region, creates serious socio-economic difficulties and fighting between ethnic and tribal groups over land. Radical Islamists can use all these factors to intensify their activities in the region in 2016.

The ongoing destabilization in Libya serves a catalyst for Islamists in the region. We should expect Islamist attacks in Mali and Chad. In Mali, the separatist moves are possible in the northern part of the country, populated by the Tuaregs.

Nigeria: War on Three Fronts

In Nigeria, the President Bukhari said to hold anti-corruption purges. Under the guise of fighting  corruption, the elites of the state removed most of the southern Christian groups. The population will feel noticeable changes in Islamicized Nigeria and the growing influence of Saudi Arabia. These measures will not undermine the Boko Haram group in northern states, but will strengthen separatist tends in the southern Christian states, which produces the main source of Nigerian elite's wealth, the oil. In the southern part of the country it is expected that the separatist movements will have a resurgence: the Movement for the Actualization of the Sovereign State of Biafra, and the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta.

The December massacre of the Nigerian Shiites will not remain unpunished for the Nigerian leadership. The Shiites will support Iran, and Iran itself will join the global oil market and thus it will hit the Nigeria economy. As a result, because of the fall of tax revenue, the Nigerian leadership will face opposition from other elites now out of power ( in a fight against corruption), armed resistance of the Boko Haram, the Nigerian Shiites in the north, and Christian separatism in the south.

The largest oil-producing and oil-dependent country in Africa will have to focus on internal problems of the country, losing to its main competitor on the continent, South Africa, within the framework of the African Union.

The Coup d’Etat and the DRC Conflict

In 2016, the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to hold presidential elections. The current President Joseph Kabila has been at the head of the country since 2001, and according the current constitution, he cannot run for a new term. To do this, the Constitution should be amended. Kabila will likely take this step, which will cause the opposition to negatively react, and may result in a coup attempt and a rebellion in eastern Congo.

Kabila came to power after the assassination of his father, the former president and influential commander from the Second Congo War. His rise to power has not yet brought the rival factions into any type of agreement or consensus around the issues, and has not yet resolved the conflict in the eastern part of the country. Opponents and competitors can come out ahead from the problems surrounding any unconstitutional third term, and move Kabila aside by way of force.

Conflict in Burundi

The escalation of the conflict in eastern DRC will be affected by the destabilization of the situation in Burundi, which will continue in 2016. In both cases, if the African Union occupied the country, and if the organization which, according to Article 8 of its Charter, can introduce troops into African countries without the permission of the sovereign leadership in emergency, the armed conflict in Burundi is inevitable. In the first case, the regime is ready to resist the AU military invasion, in the second one, a civil war will start between the forces of President Pierre Nkurunziza and opposition groups.

The most preferred outcome for the African Union would be a military deployment until the conflict in Burundi leads to an escalation of tension in the whole Great Lakes region, and results in an appearance of UN peacekeepers.

Conflict in Central African Republic

The conflict in the Central African Republic will not stop, despite the election of the president and parliament. Their results will cause dissatisfaction among the losers who will continue their armed resistance.

A likely consequence will be more activity from the French and other foreign actors, with warlords and faction leaders who have command of groups in the field. The lack of a unified state will place power into the hands of foreign monopolies, which in these conditions will reduce the costs associated with doing business, and through the use of bribery and private military companies, they will augment their own ability, especially in the case of France, to dictate their terms.

A change of successors

Two African countries are likely to face destabilization and serious threats of coups, as a result of the possible death of permanent authoritarian leaders. Built a dictatorial system of government does not imply a direct inheritance, and even if there is a successor, the struggle for power after the death of the head of state is quite possible.

In Equatorial Guinea, this year may be the last for Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, the African leader who has been in power for a long time. He stands at the head of the country since 1979, coming into power after a coup, killing the previous dictator, his own uncle. Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has cancer in the terminal stage. After his death, the struggle for power among his sons and relatives is likely to start.

A colleague of Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, the Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe is the oldest leader on the African continent. He is 91 years old, and he has no official successor. In 2015, Zimbabwe faced riots. Most likely, after the death of Mugabe, the country will be forced to redistribute power, with neighboring nations interfering, especially South Africa.

Color Revolution Attempt in South Africa

In the most developed Sub-Saharan African country, the pro-Western powers will attempt to overthrow the current president, Jacob Zuma. Zuma follows an independent policy from the West, trying to turn South Africa into one of the centers of the developing multi-polar world order. South Africa pays cooperates very heavily with other BRICS member-states, especially with China and Russia. In the case of color revolutions, attempts against other leaders of BRICS countries, such as the events of 2011 in Russia and of 2014 in Brazil, the pro-Western opposition uses accusations of authoritarianism and corruption. In particular there are some similarities with the protests in Brazil, as both Brazil and South Africa faced mainly protests of the trade unions and the students.

The protests will continue in 2016, even stronger. There are chances, that intentional provocations against Zuma will be used: dispersal of demonstrations, strikes, workers protests. Even racial tensions, and native South Africans citizen discontent with migrants from other African countries will be used.

The most likely method to remove Zuma from power is a coup from within the ruling party, the African National Congress, with mass protests in the country. Similarly, in 2008, Zuma’s predecessor, President Thabo Mbeki resigned after the ANC refused to support him.

The most likely candidate for the sixth presidency of South Africa, is the pro-Western vice president of South Africa and ANC vice-chairman Kgalema Motlanthe. During the demonstrations against Jacob Zuma in 2015, he visited the US, where among other meetings, he went to the Bush-connected World Affairs Council in Houston, leading multinational corporations in Europe, the US and the Middle East, to discuss the globalist plans for South Africa.