Imbalance of the ‘Balance Theory’ of Islamabad

CIA’s network in Pakistan and Afghanistan is still there but it is not as strong as it used to be. Faced with consequential attrition due to new geopolitics, it has its final chance to make one last attempt to keep Pakistan away from its national interest. Pakistan’s national interest lies in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor & the incipient Russia Pakistan Economic Corridor, both of which form what one may call the Eurasian Alliance (EA). To go against Pakistan’s national interest, the US has activated all its assets in Pakistan’s political parties (irrespective of government-opposition divide), media, business community and various other sensitive institutions around the country. It is obvious that things are coming to head as the days of Islamabad’s strategic ambiguity (a hangover from days of America’s infamous GWOT) will have to come to an end. In the backdrop of this, the habitually subservient and pro-America circles of Islamabad have come up with an interesting theory: From now on, we will keep our balance between big powers. The new national security document says we will not focus on geo-politics but geo-economics (as if that such a thing was ever possible), and that we remain non-aligned and not be a part of any global alliance system. Rather, our rulers have gone further and said that we can be brokers of peace between powers like China/Russia and the USA. How peaceful and romantic! In our opinion all this is juvenile thinking and such a condition is impossible to achieve in the near future. Below, we discuss why this may be so.

Getting your Friends & Foes Right:

From 1958-2022, 64 years of US-Pakistan alliance have gone by. Out of these years, only during the 11 years of Zia period can one call them allies. Rest of the time US behaved with Pakistan as it normally does with its allies, i.e., as a dispensable commodity. Especially since 9/11, from Salala to Malala, US didn’t give up the opportunity to attack and embarrass Pakistan. Due to sanctions, threats and warnings by the notorious FATF slavery system, the US is considered by an overwhelming majority of Pakistanis as an enemy. However, the ruling elite of Pakistan is diametrically opposite from its people. Often appointed and blessed by Washington, the members of the ruling elites think of US as a friend. Many of the people in the Pakistani ruling elite are also programmed to think of CPEC as the Chinese ‘East India Company’ and Russia as the historical enemy of Pakistan that helped India break East Pakistan, hence doesn’t deserve any friendship. Under the influence of such nonsense, the ruling establishment has come up the theory of ‘balance’ between the old colonizer (the West) and the new colonizers to be (China & Russia). This balance theory is based on blindess and intellectual slavery to the West. I have chosen to call this policy proposition a ‘theory’ rather than a ‘policy’ because it is based assumptions which are all wrong. Let us see how.

An absolute majority of Pakistanis (nearly 100 percent of them) believe that China is a friend of Pakistan. As argued by Andrew Small, author of best-selling China-Pakistan Axis, China and Pakistan have helped each other in a way that qualifies them to be in the closest bilateral relationship in the world. The beneficiaries of American rule of Pakistan say that ‘yes America was bad, and so will be China’ hence, while we try to wean off of the US, lets not get too close to China. Hence we must balance between the two big powers. According to their logic, we should say no to both of them and remain neutral. Here lies the flaw in their thinking: how can one balance between a friend and an enemy? One can balance between two friends, or between two enemies. However, if you treat a friend and an enemy alike, you will not likely to befriend the enemy, but you will surely lose your friend.

From colonialism to 9/11, the West has ridiculed, dishonored and usurped the life, liberty and honor of the people of Muslim world, including Pakistan. Never has China done such a thing to Pakistan. Rather, the Chinese go out of their way to offer material help to Pakistan. They also honor Pakistan much more than Pakistanis expect or often deserve. Just compare Chinese treatment of Pakistanis to that of all other nations of the world.

As far as Russia is concerned, it is true that because of befriending our civilizational enemies in the 1950s (UK and USA) we angered the USSR. However, today’s Russia has abandoned the outdated European ideologies. Today’s Russia defines itself in terms of Christian Orthodox and Islamic traditions and considers a faith based traditional worldview as the new normal. The liberals in Russia are accepted only as an anomaly which can be tolerated as long as this slim minority doesn’t try to dictate the majority. In fact, contemporary Russia follows some aspects of the Chinese model when it comes to development and security. Both these countries abandoned their old ideologies in 1970s and 80s. Russia did it abruptly in 1989 and China started doing so gradually in 1978. Further, while the Chinese laws of open practice of religion have made considerable progress, regulations on role of religion in the public square are still strict. Russian laws that were more severe during the Soviet times, have made superlative progress in which Orthodox Christianity and Islam are comfortably in the public square, active and overt part of Russian public identity. Pakistan therefore has no reason to be anti-Russia as it did during the cold war years. If we can accept China, we can easily accept Russia.

China is a heavy weight actor of global economy and will write the rules of the game in the post-Covid world order. Russia is a strategic heavy weight without whom Asia-led economic order can never be complete. These two heavy weights are in a deep strategic alliance that forms the engine of the EA. Given the acrimonious relationship between NATO and EA, countries of the Islamic civilization have a choice. Similarly, the Hindu civilization will have to choose. Its non-aligned days are over. It is clear that despite the ostensible diplomatic duality, India will remain a partner of USA, Israel and QUAD. The question is where will the Islamic civilization go?

The Arab world is not likely to come out of their deadly embrace of the West too soon, even if they would like to. Non-Arab key countries of strategic importance are Turkey, Iran and Af-Pak. Iran and Taliban government (if recognized) are resolutely on the side of the EA, but Ankara and Islamabad are unrealistically holding on their ‘balance theories’.  Ankara’s balance theory is somewhat understandable, but Islamabad’s balance theory is incomprehensible.    

Dissecting the Logic of Islamabad’s balance theory:

For Islamabad to choose between NATO and EA is hardly Sophie’s Choice. Rather, this choice is unambiguous and inescapable in the favor of EA, only if Pakistan acts rationally and if it is accountable to its own public. For Turkey to choose the side of its national interest requires farsightedness but for Islamabad to choose the side of its national interests is easy, immediate and a no-brainer. If both don’t make the necessary calibration soon, both will suffer existential threats, Islamabad sooner and Ankara later. At a time when Islamabad could’ve been non-aligned, we were aligned in favor of an unreliable partner, the USA. In today’s geopolitical scenario, when it is hardly possible to remain non-aligned, we are talking of non-alignment. This is silly.

Islamabad’s non-alignment rhetoric could mean two things: First, we no longer need to be aligned to America. If that is what they mean by non-alignment, its right along the protection of national interest of Pakistan, hence they should do it unambiguously and quickly. Second meaning of this rhetoric however is more sinister: neither will we be aligned with America, nor will be aligned with China and Russia. This is neither possible nor desirable from a security point of view. The latter version of non-alignment is coming from Washington and Washington’s lackeys in the national security apparatus of Islamabad who are peddling this dangerous discourse.

How can one remain non-aligned with China? From defense to development, diplomatic support, support for Kashmir, support against Indian aggression, support for peace in Afghanistan, are all coming from China. Moreover, since China and Russia are aligned, how can you remain non-aligned with Russia? Remember where the jet engines are coming from for your fighter aircrafts? Who will underwrite your access to Central Asia? Who will cooperate with you in Afghanistan to root out ISIS and Daesh? Today’s Russia is not USSR. Aligning with Russia will compound the benefits of our alignment with China. It is the best thing Pakistan can do.

Call of rationality for Islamabad’s delusional elite is to distance itself from the warmongering Americans and align with friendly peaceful nations of Eurasia. Since 2015, China and Russia are taking steps to spearhead an alternative world order which has already begun in Asia. It is slowly spreading in the Eurasian region and cannot be stopped.

PM Imran Khan’s Visit to Moscow on the Eve of Russian Invasion of Ukraine:

Publicly PM Khan kept his discourse in line with the balance theory, but in reality he seems to have departed from that logic as witnessed during his Moscow visit. President Putin and PM Khan met for three hours and agreed on just about everything. From the Russian point of view the meeting was a resounding success and a good basis for the beginning of a strategic partnership. This is a revolutionary step in the history of Russia-Pakistan relationship.

President Biden (much like Bush’s rhetoric of ‘your either with us or against us’) said that those countries who don’t reprimand Russia’s action will be considered its allies hence guilty of sanctionable offense. While China and Pakistan refrained from reprimanding Russia and crossed the fence away from the US, America’s ‘strategic partner’ India refrained from reprimanding Russia too. PM Khan pricked the Islamabad’s balance theory balloon and Pakistanis people will be happy to face the consequences of it. India’s turning its back on Washington and Tel Aviv will have serious consequences though. It seems like PM Khan has put Modi between a rock and hard place and he may have shoved the Islamabad’ pro-America elite between the devil and the deep blue sea. The Pakistani public on the other hand are jubilant and celebrating the deepening of their ties with Russia.