Migrants destroy Schengen and the German ruling coalition

Austria temporarily suspended the Schengen agreement and has introduced passport controls at its borders. The reason given was the ongoing migration crisis in Europe. European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker called for Schengen to be saved. Since September 2015, the 8 states of the Schengen area introduced temporary passport controls at its borders. Among them, the largest state in Europe - Germany. In Germany itself the requirement to tighten border controls may lead to a split in the ruling coalition.

The Schengen Agreement

One of the main principles of the functioning of the European Union since the Treaty of Rome in 1957 was the functioning spaces of 4 freedoms: freedom of movement of capital, free movement of goods, freedom of movement of services and freedom of movement of people. The signing of the Schengen Agreement in 1985 marked the elimination of the final obstacle (passport control) to the last of the four freedoms.

The symbolic status of Schengen

By 2015, only two EU countries had refused entry to the Schengen area - the United Kingdom and Ireland. A number of countries: Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Cyprus were preparing for full entry into the Schengen zone. Schengen has become a symbol of European integration.

The essence of the Austrian precedent

The influx of migrants from the Middle East in 2015 and the related security concerns have forced a number of EU countries to reassess its borders, including with other countries of the European Union. These decisions took effect in Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Austria and Norway, whom is not a EU member, but is part of the Schengen zone. According to EU rules, the introduction of temporary passport controls within the Schengen area is only possible for up to 30 days.

Austria not only introduced controls at the borders, but also announced the temporary suspension of the Schengen Agreement. According to the Prime Minister, if the EU fails to protect his country from migrants from the external borders of the Union, the future of Schengen would be called into question.

German rift

In Germany, Horst Seehofer, Bavarian Prime Minister and leader of the Christian Social Union, the main partner of Merkel's party in the ruling coalition, put forward an ultimatum - change the migration policy and to regain control of migrants at the borders of the country within the next 14 days. If this demand is not satisfied Bavaria will start legal action against the federal government.

Liberal bureaucracy against nation states

The EU as an institution is not able at the moment to protect its external borders. Launched last year, the border guard of the EU exists only on paper. Therefore, nation-states have to protect themselves from the influx of migrants. Moreover, the liberal European bureaucracy does not consider migration and the destruction of the national identity of European countries as a problem.

Forecast

The flow of migrants to the EU will continue. The European Union will do nothing to stop this process. As a result, the nation-states will recover by their own monitoring procedures. The Schengen Area during the year will cease to exist. In Germany, the ruling coalition will enter a deep political crisis leading up to March. In Bavaria, the growth of separatist sentiment due to dissatisfaction with the migration policy of the federal center will continue.

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Migrants destroy Schengen and the German ruling coalition