The CIS summit and the geopolitics of responsible power

An informal meeting of CIS heads of state was held in St. Petersburg on December 26 and 27, 2022. Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov, and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev attended. That is, the leaders of the nine states that were part of the USSR. Among those absent were the Baltic states, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. For Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia the situation is clear: they have long been part of the EU and NATO bloc. Ukraine, or rather the neo-Nazi regime that considers itself the successor to that state, still fiercely resists the process of demilitarization and denazification. Georgia left the CIS in 2008 under Saakashvili, who, like Zelensky, was a puppet of the West. Moldova is still a member of the CIS, but Maia Sandu pursued a Russophobic policy and was suspended from CIS organs as early as May 2022. It is also significant that Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine all participate in the Eastern Partnership, a project formally presented by the EU as a neighborhood and integration program, but which is a political and economic expansion of the West.

However, the informal summit showed that Russia has not managed to remain isolated; relations between the countries continue and are reaching new heights. Despite a number of current problems, such as the Armenian-Azerbaijani and Kyrgyz-Tajik conflicts, the sides showed their intention to cooperate constructively. This is in spite of the recent blockade of the Lachin corridor leading to Karabakh and the absence of Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev from the Eurasian Economic Commission (EAEC) meeting held in Bishkek on December 9 (the official reason is an illness).

Vladimir Putin, in his welcome address to participants at the informal pre-New Year's meeting of Commonwealth of Independent States leaders in St. Petersburg, called the Russian language a unifying force. President Tokayev of Kazakhstan recognized the role of the Russian language in the post-Soviet space. This is despite the fact that Kazakhstan itself has recently witnessed an increase in nationalistic, i.e., Russophobic, sentiments. Presumably, Kazakhstan's leaders have also taken the hint from Moscow and learned their lesson from the January 2022 coup attempt, which occurred, oddly enough, after the same summit of CIS leaders.

Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also noted the success of ties in the post-Soviet and thus Eurasian space: “During the year, special attention was paid especially to the implementation of the goals of the CIS Economic Development Strategy to 2030. All these steps bore fruit. I would like to note with satisfaction that trade turnover between Kazakhstan and the CIS countries in January-October grew by 11 percent to nearly $30 billion, while in the same period in 2021 it was $26.5 billion. An increase of about $5 billion. This is a good trend... General cultural and humanitarian cooperation and the strengthening of the language space in the CIS are of constant importance. The awarding of official Commonwealth Cultural Capital status to St. Petersburg in 2023 will serve to strengthen cultural ties among CIS countries.

Also, during the summit, it was learned that Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have accepted Russia's proposal to establish a “Triple Gas Union”.

This means that the Central Asian republics, despite their multivectoral foreign policies, understand Russia's real role and status, so they prefer to work with a reliable and proven partner rather than unpredictable and historically toxic external actors. Moreover, Moscow is also a regional security provider, which is not insignificant in an era of colorful revolutions and external interventions.

The Neva summit is also likely to be a stimulus for further Eurasian integration, both for members of the association, where some participants have sought to abstract from interactions with Moscow since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, and for potentially highly anticipated new actors (such as Tajikistan). Although one cannot ignore the efforts of other countries-Turkey, for example, with its attempts to be active in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and even China with its Belt and Road initiative, which is an active vector of Beijing's foreign policy and does not involve integration processes.

The formal results of the summit also show that Russia has been successful: next year, 2023, will be the Year of the Russian Language, which will emphasize the role of the Russian world. As Vladimir Putin said, “A very extensive program of events has been developed to support, preserve and elevate the status of the language as a language of interethnic communication and to promote our cultural achievements in every possible way. These events will contribute to the mutual spiritual and cultural enrichment of the CIS states”. The President also stressed that “another key area of cooperation among the CIS countries is the maintenance of security and stability in our common Eurasian region”.

After all, what influenced the decision of the CIS leaders to come to St. Petersburg and continue active interaction with Russia? Obviously, Moscow is demonstrating its hard power in Ukraine as well. Decades of inarticulate policies, especially during a period of infatuation with the Western concept of soft power, have led Ukraine to disaster. And a tougher stance on the West, which has suffered far more from counter-sanctions than Russia. In Asia and the Caucasus, they have very clearly appreciated the considerable lessons Moscow has taught the United States, the EU and their satellites, and probably decided that it is better to let the fools learn from their mistakes and repeat them, while we learn from the mistakes of others. Geographical fate, especially that of the inland countries, i.e., Central Asia, inevitably points to the need for friendship with Russia. Moscow's corresponding turn toward the East makes its policy more responsible and strategically relevant to current realities.

Translation by Costantino Ceoldo