Is Trump Looking for an Orange Revolution in Cuba?

The cessation of the United States blockade against Cuba, demanded for the twenty-eighth consecutive year in the General Assembly of the United Nations Organization and overwhelmingly approved by 187 votes in favor, 3 against (USA, Israel and Brazil ) and 2 abstentions, reaffirms the freedom of commerce and navigation in the face of an anachronistic blockade established by Kennedy in 1962 and which would have meant direct and indirect losses for the Island estimated at $ 110 billion according to the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and close to Billion $ according to the Cuban Government.

Is Trump obsessed with Cuba?

The cosmetic measures taken by the Obama Administration in its First Presidential Term following in the wake of the Clinton Administration (relaxation of communications and the increase in the sending of remittances to the island as well as the start of a round of talks on immigration issues), they left the blockade intact and did not substantially change Washington's policy, although they reflected the consensus of broad sectors of the American people in favor of a change of policy towards the Island sponsored by the decision of the Cuban regime to end state paternalism and allow free initiative and self-employment. Thus, after the intervention of Pope Francis in the secret negotiation carried out between Cuba and the US to break the thaw between the two countries through the exchange of Alan Gross and a US official for three members of "The 5", we witnessed the disappearance of Cuba from the US list of Terrorist Countries and the subsequent opening of Embassies.

However, Donald Trump would have adopted as leitmotif of his Presidency to eliminate all vestiges of the Obamanian legacy. Thus, after the attempt to end Obamacare, the announcement of the revision of the NAFTA Treaty and the withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement against Climate Change, the next step was to undo the diplomatic and commercial advances achieved with Cuba under the mandate of Barack Obama. with the intention of increasing regulations and supervision to make it difficult for US companies to sign agreements with Cuba as well as for Americans to continue traveling to the country and would be the result of the strenuous pressure of the prominent Cuban-American representatives Marco Rubio and Mario Díaz- Balart, both Republicans. In addition, the automatic renewal by the United States for another year of the trade embargo on the island would undermine the current international financial and political system and could mean losses to Cuba estimated at nearly $ 70 billion, leading the Cuban regime to suffocation. economic, being “peremptory” the settlement of a blockade that runs the risk of becoming endemic and that can become lethal after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.

Is Trump Looking for an Orange Revolution in Cuba?

The new strategy of the Trump Administration is to strengthen commercial and military ties with the Petrocaribe countries in the face of the danger of mimetic contagion of the Chavista revolutionary ideals by depending exclusively on the Venezuelan Petrocaribe for its energy supply, so the Trump Administration is it would have set as an immediate objective the termination of Petrocaribe. Petrocaribe was created in 2005 at the initiative of Chávez with the objective of supplying fuels to member countries under advantageous conditions of payment, such as soft loans and low interest rates, and was made up of 18 countries (including Honduras, Guatemala, Cuba, Nicaragua, Republic Dominican, Haiti, Belize and a dozen Caribbean islands).

Thus, Mike Pence announced the implementation of new measures against two companies that transport Venezuelan crude oil to Cuba, as well as against the 34 ships that PDVSA uses for this purpose with the avowed objective of causing the “energy suffocation of Cuba” through the amputation of the umbilical cord that unite Venezuela and Cuba following the Kentian theory of "stick and carrot" exposed by Sherman Kent in his book "Strategic Intelligence for North American World Policy" (1949). In this book, Kent states that “war is not always conventional: indeed, a large part of the war, from the remote and the closest, has always been carried out with unconventional weapons: [...] weapons [. ..] political and economic. The kind of war in which [...] (they are) the political war and the economic war. ”

Continuing with the repressive escalation, the US Treasury Department has recently imposed sanctions on the Cuban state company Cubametales for "its continued importation of Venezuelan crude and support for the Government of the President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro." As a consequence of this measure, the assets that the company may have under US jurisdiction are frozen and financial transactions with US entities are prohibited since Cubametales would be according to the US Government. "Responsible for guaranteeing total fuel imports and exports to and from Cuba."

All this will mean that the Island is bound to suffocate with unpredictable results after the collapse of tourism caused by the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic on the Island, which has accounted for 862 confirmed cases, 151 healed and 27 deaths. However, in the paroxysm of insolidarity, the Trump Administration would be blocking the purchases and deliveries of masks, lung ventilators and other basic health supplies for the treatment of patients with Covid-19, since the ultimate goal of the Trump Administration would be to achieve shortages Total oil, food and vital health supplies to face the COVID-19 pandemic, a scenario that will be remotely controlled by the CIA to provoke an Orange Revolution that shakes the current status quo of the Island.