Primaries on 26th of April: Expectations and Forecast

The features of the Primaries on 26th of April

On April 26th, 2016, the US presidential primaries in the states of Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Maryland, and Rhode Island will take place. Connecticut and Rhode Island are traditionally referred to as the New England region. Pennsylvania, Delaware, and Maryland are Mid-Atlantic States. Both regions are historically related to each other and are historically the core from which the American nation originated. Historically, the Mid-Atlantic region (which also includes New York) was less Puritan than New England and more heterogeneous. American geographers and historians called it a typically American region.
Traditionally, the northeastern states are different due to a more independent, liberal electorate, a high proportion of blue collars, and influence of trade unions in politics. It is less religious than the southern states of the so-called Bible belt. These increase the chances of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders winning. In addition, both Trump and Sanders are natives of the geographically and culturally close New York City. Currently the distribution of the states won by the candidates is as follows:

Bernie Sanders need to get more than the 1,000 delegate votes to become the candidate of the Democratic Party. But because of his good position in the presidential race, this will not change anything as Hillary has almost won the race. Another thing is the republican race: today Donald trump has 845 delegates, 392 short of the number needed for the nomination. Cruz has 559, and Kasich has 148. Therefore, speaking about the Republican primaries, we also have to specify the number of delegates that is at stake in each of the states, because these are the votes that matter.

In terms of figures

Public opinion polls show the following picture. Among the Republicans in Connecticut, Donald Trump leads with 48% of likely GOP voters, while Ohio Governor John Kasich is supported by 28%, and Texas Senator Ted Cruz by 19%. 5% are undecided. The State has 28 Republican delegates to award proportionally.

Opinion polls in Delaware give similar figures: 16 Republican delegates will be taken by the winner (the ‘winner takes all’ system).
In Pennsylvania, traditionally, Trump is in first place with 47% of the vote. Cruz pulled away in second with 27% of votes. Kasich can receive 25%.

It is the state with the largest amount of delegates to award proportionally on Tuesday 26th of April. 71 Republican delegates are at the stake.

The typical Trump voter in Pennsylvania is as follows: white male - (53% of men are pro-Trump), conservative (43% of self-described conservatives, while for Cruz only 32%), and without a college degree (55% compared with 41% of other candidates). The question of age does not play a serious role in the electoral preferences of Republicans, and a similar pattern was observed in other states.

In public opinion polls in Maryland, Trump has 41% of the vote, Kasich 26.3%, and Cruz 24.5%. Maryland has 38 Republican delegates and a winner-takes-all system.

Rhode Island has 19 Republican delegates distributed proportionally with Trump also leading polls (40%).

Among Democrats in Connecticut, Hillary Clinton leads with 51%, and Bernie Sanders will receive 42%. 6% are undecided. The typical Connecticut pro-Clinton voter is an African-American, (66% for Clinton) woman (55% for Clinton, aged 35 and older).

Typical Connecticut pro-Sanders voter is white, male (50% of men for Sanders), and aged under 35 (73%).

In Delaware, Clinton is likely to pick up 45% of the vote, and Bernie Sanders 38% according to Gravis Marketing.

In Pennsylvania, Hilary Clinton is preparing to receive 53.4%, and Bernie Sanders 39.3%. In Maryland, 57% are prepared to vote for the wife of Bill Clinton, but for the Jewish Socialist Senator - 35%. Rhode Island will face a tighter race with Clinton gaining 44% and Sanders 41%.