The Prague Metronome

The Prague metronome, which was established in 1991 in Prague on a hill in the district of Holešovice on the site of the dismantled former Stalin monument, symbolizes the inexorability of time. It simultaneously shows a new trajectory of the country’s development and, namely, the fluctuations of the metronome were intended to reflect the progress of the political and economic life of the country.

Modern Czech Republic is a surprisingly stable and prosperous country in Central and Eastern Europe. As one of the industrialized countries of the region, the Czech Republic saved its own national currency and didn't enter the "euro zone", which is today experiencing a crisis, and thus avoided a large-scale currency devaluation and "collapse" like the Hungarian economic disaster of 2006. The country is also one of the few EU countries which has preserved economic growth for several years straight. The country stands out as unique against the background of its Eastern European neighbors who are now experiencing the deepest social and economic recessions. The quality of governing institutions and economic successes have turned the Czech Republic into a sort of island of stability in comparison to the majority of neighboring countries. Being not inclined to follow ideological extremes and boundless populism in politics, the country seems to have all the chances to expand its welfare and maintain social and national security.

The capital of the Czech Republic, Prague, is a place of intense political life. For example, the city hosts the headquarters of many US and European aid institutions and foundations, among them “Radio Liberty.” Also, many pro-Western Russian opposition leaders have visited the city, including Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Grigory Yavlinsky, who not so long ago were seen delivering speeches at the local Prague office of the German Goethe Institute (which, despite receiving good publicity, did not achieve the expected resonance). Andrei Babitsky, the former “Radio Liberty” journalist, also worked here, but was recently fired by his superiors after his visit to the Donetsk region for making some “ill-formatted” judgements.

There is also an enormous Ukrainian diaspora in Prague which, admittedly, is quite well organized and politically active. There are organizations of Carpathian Ruthenians as well, who regularly conduct political activities and nominate candidates for local governments and even the European Parliament.

Russians themselves, though they are the fourth largest Czech community, do not show any significant political activism. The level of their political organization has been and is still very low, which is quite surprising in a situation when Prague universities, not including other cities, are attended by several thousands of Russian students. The possible explanation could be their unwillingness to participate in pro-Western-opposition political activities and the impossibility of good working career if they participate in political activities representing the original Russian way of life.

The political mood in the Czech Republic is flexible and subject to numerous fluctuations. Soft and cautious Euro-scepticism (which acts as a shining symbol of the former prime minister and then president Vaclav Klaus, who from time to time allows himself to make certain “politically-incorrect” statements) coexists with the fundamental loyalty of the main part of the political establishment to the institutions of the European Union. However, since the burying of the former Czech Republic’s President Vaclav Havel, the country lost a large part of its former Euro-integration enthusiasm. One could certainly mention on this note the continued rejection of Russia by a large part of various age groups, including young people. However, a more peaceful and balanced view of the history of the Czech Republic also reveals growing social support for Russia. This was demonstrated by the attitude of Prague residents to the ceremonies celebrating the 70th anniversary of its liberation from Nazi invaders, which was more friendly than in recent years.

What could be the reason for this change? Czechs have traditionally avoided open confrontation and always striven for a certain degree of political independence in attempting to refuse pressure and manipulation from whatever direction, whether from East or West. These attitudes are partially reflected in the policy of the current Czech President Milos Zeman.

Czech Republic, having a long history of close connections with Ukraine, quite vividly reacted to the Euro-Maidan. Television, press, and many MPs were notable supporters of the Ukrainian protests, and a group of Euro-Maidan activists also appeared and settled down in Prague, which periodically engages in political actions. Although a considerable part of the elite and the politically interested public continues to support the Euro-Maidan, there is also a growing skepticism and wariness in Czech society as to the prospects for the development of the situation in and around Ukraine. Despite declarations of “all-around support for Ukraine’s European choice,” visa controls for Ukrainian citizens have been enhanced over the past few years. The Czech Republic is a small country that feels its vulnerability against the backdrop of destabilizing processes near its eastern borders. Hence why the country is interested in every way in achieving peace and stability in the conflict zone in the Donetsk region.

What are the prospects for the development of the political situation in the Czech Republic? The current Czech president, Milos Zeman, who is regarded as a “soft Europeanist” and who won a bitter struggle against the hard supporter of the modern EU leadership’s policies and the former minister of foreign affairs, Prince Karel Schwarzenberg, is likely to lose the next presidential election in 2017 if he continues his electoral campaign in an inertial manner and proves unable to form a coalition of different political parties supporting him.

The Social Democratic Party to which he belonged earlier is now in opposition to him, and all his attempts to create a viable new party which could be his “own” have failed. Because of all this, parliamentary elections similarly do not promise any favorable prospects for the politically fragmented supporters of Milos Zeman.

Another piece of the Czech political puzzle is the still-influential Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia, which has 15% of the seats in the Czech Parliament and is supported by pensioners and the unemployed youth of the industrial areas of the country. However, growing political uncertainty, coupled with the conformism of a considerable part of the Communist party “leaders” could deliver an unkind service to this political party.

In such a case, the dominant force in the Czech parliament will remain the EU advocates and thus all the illusions and hopes connected with the figure of President Zeman will disappear from the political horizon. However, the Czech Republic is unlikely to become the next Poland in regards to its relations with Russia due to the differences in its political culture and temperament. Nevertheless, a greater emphasis on “moderate Russophobia” is quite possible for the prevailing part of the country’s political elite.

What can Russia do in such a situation? And should Russia do anything in such a situation? There is a point of view that the Czech Republic is too small in terms of its territorial size and political weight to be of interest to Russian geopolitics. My answer to the second question is ‘yes’. The value of Czech Republic should not be underestimated. It is, in spite of the apparent immutability of some basics of its political life, a true barometer of political tendencies in Eastern Europe, a kind of "golden middle", which counterbalances the political extremes manifested in the neighboring Eastern European countries. The answer to the first question is more confusing, because Russia has lost many of its political and economic positions in Czech Republic since 1990. Today, however, there are some viable opportunities to once again strengthen Russia’s influence in the political and economic life of the country.