Geopolitical Forecast for July 18th-24th

Monday, July 18th

Eurasia

Ukraine, July 18th - September 30th - The “Sea Breeze” Ukrainian-American military exercises on the territory of the Odessa and Nikolaev regions as well as the North-Western Black Sea will be held. 2,000 servicemen of the USA and other NATO member states will participate with weapons and military equipment as well as with up to 15 ships, 5 submarines, 12 planes and helicopters, and up to 100 wheeled vehicles. 

Donetsk, Donetsk People's Republic (ex-Ukraine) - Candidates will begin to be nominated for participating in primary elections to local organs of authority in the Donetsk People’s Republic.

Europe

Romania, July 18th - 22nd - The “Sea Shield” international military naval exercises will be held in the Black Sea. 2,000 Romanian servicemen and military sailors from Bulgaria, Greece, Canada, Poland, the US, Turkey, and Ukraine will participate involving 22 ships and 9 aircraft.

Brussels, Belgium - The EU Council on Foreign Affairs will be in session with the participation of US Secretary of State John Kerry.

London, United Kingdom, July 18th - 19th - US Secretary of State John Kerry’s visit.

London, United Kingdom - Parliamentary vote on the modernization of the country’s nuclear arsenal. The government intends to purchase four nuclear submarines equipped with Trident missile systems.

North America

New York, USA - Session of the UN Security Council on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. The nuclear deal with Iran will be discussed.

New York, USA - The UN Security Council will hold consultations to discuss the situation surrounding the use of chemical weapons in Syria.

Cleveland, Ohio, USA, July 18th - 21st - The Republican National Convention

Islamic world

Ankara, Turkey - Visit by the co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group from Russia, the USA, and France. The event includes a meeting with the Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlut Cavusoglu.

Pacific region

Singapore, July 18th - 19th - Visit by Prime Minister of Sri Lanka Ranil Wickramasinghe

Tuesday, July 19th 

Eurasia

Ulyanovsk, Russia - First meeting of the Council on Interregional Cooperation between Russia and China in the “Volga-Yangtze” format under the chairmanship of the Volga Federal District’s plenipotentiary representative of the President of the Russian Federation, Mikhail Babich, and Chinese State Councilor Yang Jiechi.

Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan - Meeting of the Council on Interregional and Border Cooperation of CIS participating states.

Europe

Sweden - Toughened law on the reception of refugees comes into force. Migration management will gain the right to grant temporary (for 3 years) rather than permanent residence to those receiving asylum. Opportunities for the arrival of refugees’ family members will be restricted and social benefits will be reduced. 

Vienna, Austria - Session of the Joint Commission of Iran and “the Six” International Mediators (US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China) dedicated to the realization of atomic deals.

Madrid, Spain - The first session of both houses of parliament since early elections held on June 26th.

Warsaw, Poland - The country’s parliament will consider the resolution on recognizing July 11th as National Day of Remembrance for Victims of the Genocide against Poles committed by Ukrainian nationalists during the Second World War (the Volyn massacre).

Portugal - Visit by French President Francois Hollande.

North America 

Washington, USA - Meeting of the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund at which the crises in Greece, Ireland, and Portugal are planned to be examined.

Pacific region

Seoul, Republic of Korea - Planned special session of the National Assembly (parliament) on the question of THAAD American missile defense systems being stationed in the country. 

Tokyo, Japan, July 19th - 20th - Visit by Russian Minister of Economic Development Aleksey Ulyukaev. Meetings are planned with representatives of the government as well as a speech to be delivered before the business community entitled “Relevant Tasks in Developing Russian-Japanese Trade and Economic Relations.”

Wednesday, July 20th  

Europe

Austria, Slovakia, Czech Republic - Visits by French President Francois Hollande.

London, UK, 12:00 - New Prime Minister Theresa May’s first appearance in parliament for a Q&A session.

Paris, France, July 20th - 21st - Parliamentary examination of the law on extending the state of emergency rule in the country for three months.

London, UK - Meeting of the Board of Directors of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.

North America

Maryland, USA, July 20th - 21st - Meeting of defense ministers of the countries participating in the international coalition fighting the terrorist grouping known as the “Islamic State.”

Pacific region

Hanoi, Vietnam - Opening of the first session of the National Assembly (unicameral parliament) formed by elections on May 22nd.

New Zealand, July 20th - 21st - Visit by US Vice President Joe Biden scheduled to meet with Prime Minister John Key.

China

Shanghai, China, July 20th - 21st - First annual meeting of the management of the BRICS New Development Bank.

Thursday, July 21st

Europe

Ireland - Visit by French President Francois Hollande.

Warsaw, Poland - Meeting of the heads of governments of the Visegrad Group (Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and Czech Republic).

Frankfurt-On-Main, Germany - Meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank.

Islamic world

Lahore, Pakistan, July 21st - 24th - Meeting of border service leadership with colleagues from India to coordinate efforts on maintaining peace in border areas.

Pakistan - planned elections to the Legislative Assembly of the Azad Kashmir territory which, although officially recognized as a self-governing state, is de facto part of Pakistan.

North America

New York, USA - First preliminary vote in the UN Security council for the organization’s General Secretary. 11 candidates are running for the post.

Pacific region 

Vientiane, Laos, July 21st - 25th - 49th meeting of the foreign ministers of the member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian States.

Friday, July 22nd 

Europe 

Paris, France - The Court of Cassation will adopt a decision concerning IMF head Christine Lagarde, against whom a case could be brought accusing fraud for the benefit of the businessman Bernard Tapie.

Norway, 09:30 - Commemorative events dedicated to the 5th anniversary of the terrorist attacks in Oslo and the island of Utoya as a result of which 77 people were killed.

North America 

Washington, USA - US President Barack Obama will meet with Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto.

Saturday, July 23rd - 

China

Chengdu, China, July 23rd - 24th - Meeting between the finance ministers and central bank heads of the G20. 

Sunday, July 24th 

Europe

Bratislava, Slovakia, July 24th - 25th - EU Council meeting on general affairs.

Pacific region

 

Vientiane, Laos, July 24th - 25th - Meeting of foreign ministers in the Russia-ASEAN format.