Erdogan apologized: what’s next?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan apologized to the president of Russia Vladimir Putin in connection with the tragic death of a Russian pilot in November of last year. The Turkish airforce shot down a Russian jet in the area of ​​the Syrian-Turkish border. Gunmen from Turkish nationalist groups killed the pilot who ejected in the air. Russian President Vladimir Putin called it a "stab in the back" of Russia.

American plot

According to our information, the provocation of the destruction of the Russian aircraft was directly coordinated with the US. Adherents Fethullah Gülen, a Turkish Islamist ideologue permanently residing in the United States, as well as other American agents of influence in Turkey may have been involved. The US aimed to benefit from the conflict of two regional rivals, making both of them more dependent on outside power.

According to the Turkish and world press, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was behind the shoot down of the Russian aircraft on the Turkish-Syrian border on 24th November 2015. According to his reported declaration, the Turkish armed forces executed his order. It was Davutoglu who voiced the most radical initiatives of the Turkish leadership for the invasion of Syria. However, his most serious crime against Turkey was the break in relations with Russia, which isolated the country from their most important partner and made it directly dependent on the United States and Qatar. Impartial geopolitical analysis shows that Turkey was not interested in the loss of Russia as a partner. It was the only factor that allowed the Turks to act independently of the United States, playing on the contradictions between Moscow, Washington, and European capitals. Yes, the positions of both countries on Syria differed significantly, but before the tragic events of November 2015, both countries were able to negotiate their interests.

Neo-Ottoman catastrophe

The destruction of the Russian aircraft marked the peak of Ahmet Davutoglu’s neo-Ottoman policy. Under Davutoglu, Turkey become a regional troublemaker and a ringleader of conflict, and those conflicts have had a negative impact on Turkey. Through Davutoglu, Turkey became involved in the conflict in Syria, one of the consequences of which was the revival of the Kurdish factor, which now threatens the very integrity of the Republic of Turkey. Radical Islamism entrenched in Syria and Iraq is also a threat to national security. In fact, Davutoglu's "neo-Ottomanism" meant the rejection of the pragmatic policy dictated by the interests of Turkey as a nation state in the name of its transformation into a global Islamic Center, but as a result the country received only terror, chaos, disruption of profitable economic ties with Russia, and a position of greater dependence on the US.

Erdogan changes policy

Davutoglu's dismissal in May 2016 meant Erdogan intends to change radically his foreign policy. The US regarded Davutoglu as the most likely successor to Erdogan in this situation, hence the striking differences between the two figures in light of Western media. If Erdogan is still accused of authoritarianism, such serious accusations will not sound like the address of the architect of the Turkish catastrophe - Davutoglu.

Erdogan got rid of his main rival in the fight for power and one of the principal conductors of American influence. The Turkish leader thus showed a willingness to change Turkey's foreign policy in a more rational and pragmatic way that is consistent with the national interests of the country.

New Turkish Prime-Minister Binali Yildirim seeks to overcome the catastrophic consequences of Davutoglu's course regarding Russia. He is very close to Erdogan and thus expresses the willingness of Turkish leader too. Since taking the position as Prime Minister, he almost immediately announced that he would seek to restore friendly relations with all countries with which Turkey had earlier entered into conflict with. In particular, this applies to Russia. Under Yıldırım, Ankara intensified efforts to improve relations with Moscow. According to our sources, the Turkish rapprochement with Russia and the preservation of the territorial integrity of Syria are the two key points of Yildirim's foreign policy program. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu is supporting him in this effort.

To defeat the sixth column

Turkey, hit by Russian sanctions and the catastrophic outcomes of neo-Ottomanism, seeks the revival of relations with Russia. Erdogan has overcome an important psychological barrier for a man accustomed to governing alone. It is up to Russia. Earlier, US supporters from the ranks of the sixth column in the Turkish and Russian leaderships used different pseudo-patriotic pretexts to avoid the new rapprochement between Russia and Turkey. Thus, they and the patriots manipulated by them acted in the interests of the US. It was they who were behind the Russian disregard of the signals on the approximation of the Turkish side. They prevented Erdogan from apologizing, but he overcame their influence. Now it is up to Russia. While on an assignment, and only the Turkish side was very serious. A trial begins over Celik - the fighter that organized the murder of the Russian pilot. Davutoglu submitted his resignation. Now Erdogan made an apology.

Towards the new policy in Syria

Turkey is likely to take part in the Foreign Ministers meeting of the Organization of Black Sea cooperation in Sochi on Friday. Heads of the Russian and Turkish diplomatic missions have something to discuss. The logical consequence of rapprochement with Russia should be a change in Turkey's foreign policy.

It is necessary to change the whole policy that Turkey has led to a dead end and put it on the brink of war. This means not only to restore peace and the alliance with Russia, but also to give up its ties with ISIS, recognize the legitimacy of Assad, secure the territorial integrity of Syria, and eventually to break with US tutelage. To go further Turkey needs support from Russia.