First trip of Trump: meaning

20.05.2017
Mecca and Mecca-centric leaders

The first country to which Donald Trump is sent is Saudi Arabia. During the visit, he will meet with King Salman bin Abdul-Aziz Al Saud. The American president will arrive in the country on May 19. On May 20, Trump will attend the summit of the Council of Cooperation of the Heads of State of the Persian Gulf (an organization uniting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman), and next day the American president should address the leaders of the Arab and Islamic states in Riyadh In the framework of the World American-Islamic Forum.

The latest event should demonstrate the power, strength and influence of the Saudi kingdom in the Islamic world and convince the American colleagues that they made the right decision by placing a stake on the Saudis.

The fact that such a rate is made is confirmed not only by Trump's visit. On May 13, the US media reported that the US plans to equip Saudi Arabia with weapons worth $ 100 billion. It is worth recalling that the first item on the Middle East tour of the new US Defense Secretary James Mattis was also Saudi Arabia.

"Saudi Arabia is the keeper of the two holy cities of Islam, and it is there that we will begin to build a new basis for cooperation and mutual assistance with our Muslim allies in order to combat extremism, terrorism and violence," said May 4 American President, speaking on the occasion of the promulgation of his decree on the protection of religious freedoms.

The American president seemed to have forgotten how he called the Saudis the largest sponsors of terrorism in the world in 2011, and during the election campaign brought to the clean water the citizens of this state, implicated in the financing of the election campaign of Hillary Clinton. At the same time, despite the statements of Trump that the Saudi subjects attacked the twin towers during the September 11, 2011 attacks, Saudi Arabia did not appear on the list of seven Arab countries, whose residents in January 2017 banned entry into the United States.

Tramp's anti-Assad rhetoric should not be taken at face value. So, The Washington Post reports that in August 2015, Trump registered eight firms in the hotel industry in Saudi Arabia. The lobbyist of the Saudis, Mark Lamkin, and the BGR Group, a firm representing the interests of the Saudi government, "invested" in Trump's campaign.

Saudian Arabia - reality check

Presidency of Barack Obama, especially his last years, the Saudis considered for themselves not the best time. Firstly, the "Arab spring" welcomed by the United States, which opened up new opportunities for the kingdom in Libya and Syria, simultaneously launched the processes of destabilization in Bahrain and Yemen. And if the Saudis managed to enter the troops in Bahrain and did not allow the Shiite majority to overthrow the Sunni king, that would preorientate this oil-producing state towards an alliance with Iran, then in Yemen. After two coup, Saudi Arabia entered into a civil war in 2015, from which this day can not come out with honor.

Trump is regularly disinformed about real politics of Saudian Arabia by both dominant decision makers teams - pro-Saudian CFR and anti-Saudian neocons. He should verify the situation in order to form his own atittude to this controversial issue. 

Israelis - allies and friends

The next item on the Trump tour is Israel. Here the American president will arrive on May 22. With regard to the Jewish state, Trump remains true to his election promises. And although he never transferred the residence of the American ambassador from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Israel's support became one of the points of the foreign policy doctrine of the new American administration.

Trump really stated about the desire to resolve Palestinian issue. However, the almost all American presidents wanted the same, but nobody succeed.

Another possible topic of the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu is Syria. The proposed Astana format of negotiations and de-escalation zones does not imply participation in the solution of the Syrian crisis of Israel, as, indeed, of Saudi Arabia. But here the position of Israel is better than that of the Saudis. After a meeting with Donald Tramp on May 10, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov mentioned the special interests of the United States in southern Syria - and this is exactly the border with Israel, where Tel Aviv does everything to prevent the Syrian army and Hezbollah militia.

A visit to Israel is necessary for the US president for domestic political reasons. First of all, this is due to the desire to enlist the support of the influential Israeli lobby.

Rome and its Pope

On May 24, the US President appointed an audience with the Pope. The choice of this point of the trip was influenced once more by domestic policy. According to the Italian newspaper La Stampa, preparations for the meeting with the pontiff began a few months before Trump's foreign tour.

The history of the relationship between Pope Francis and President Trump is difficult to call any satisfactory. During his campaign, the eccentric billionaire even described as "shameful" the statement of the Pope, in which he questioned his devotion to Christian doctrine.

Pope Francis has repeatedly criticized Trump's position on the restriction to migration from Mexico, populated mostly by Catholics. At the same time, the Catholic community in the United States is the mainstay of traditional values, in support of which was Trump. This is the largest confession in the US, numbering more than 70 million people in its ranks.

One of the main theses of both Trump-candidate and Trump-president is the protection of Christians from persecution, first of all in the Islamic world. 

NATO summit

On 25 May, Trump will attend the summit of NATO heads of state and government. European part of the tour will be dominated by the European agenda.

According to the information leaked to the press, the most likely agenda of the NATO summit in Brussels will cover the issues of the expanded American presence in Europe (implementation of decisions taken at the previous Warsaw summit in July 2016) and deterring Russia. The issue of increasing the share of European countries in financing NATO and the related strengthening of the European component of NATO will also be raised. So far, except the US, 2% of GDP for military spending (including the purchase of US military equipment) is spent by Britain, Greece, Poland and "powerful" Estonia.

Trump will not miss the chance to shift the financial burden on the shoulders of his European allies.

 

G7

On May 26 Trump will arrive at a meeting of G7 leaders in Sicily.

As for the possible outcomes of the Brussels summit there will be nothing special.

It is significant that for the first time the North Atlantic Alliance refused to publish a declaration that would outline the main priorities of the military alliance after the summit. As reported to the American edition of Foreign Policy by its sources, the main reason is the fear that "Trump does not like this".

Trump is known by his antipathy toward EU. But the things are not ready to give it some shape. SO G& will be much more first step of aquantaince. Much depends on psychological behaviour of G7 leaders. In the case of Trump this aspect does matter.

Taormina meeting

A similar situation with the G7 summit, which will be held May 26-27 in the city of Taormina on the island of Sicily. According to official information, the leaders of the United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom should discuss international security, sustainable economic, social and environmental development, overcome inequalities, and the problems caused by technological development to a fundamentally new stage The so-called next production revolution - Next Productive Revolution.

Here the topic of anti-Russian sanctions can be raised by Italy suffering more than other by it. But it is unlikely that the question is going to be treated properly due to its complicated nature. The Swamp in USA did anything to prevent anything of a kind. 

 

Swamp's populism

In order to overcome the resistance of the elites that the American president encountered in the first 120 days of his reign, he needs to adopt the traditional republican policy in many directions (hence the focus on the Middle East, the resuscitation of alliances with Israel and Saudi Arabia, NATO support), prove its effectiveness, And also be cautious about Russia.

It seems that Trump continues his election campaign, only first he needed to get the votes of the electors, and now to win certain suppport from opposite pole -- from the political elite, that is from the Swamp.