Aggravation of the conflict in Ukraine is inevitable

Meeting in January 2016

The heads of state agreed to hold a meeting of their foreign ministers in January 2016. It is now expected that an agreement to extend the truce in the Donbass will be officially signed,  and conditions for it will be discussed as well.

The essence of the document
The so-called Minsk protocol was signed in September 2014 in Minsk by representatives of Donetsk rebels and Ukraine, under Russian mediation. Unlike Western countries who are not directly involved in the conflict, Russia is formally a guarantor of the Minsk Agreement. The agreements provide for a cease-fire and a buffer zone between the warring parties.
Conflict of interpretation
Each participant of the negotiation process in Ukraine understands the Minsk agreement differently. Russia and the Republics of Donbass prioritized for the territories of Novorossiya a special status, which is understood as legitimizing the status quo. Kiev insists on the immediate reintegration of the separatist territories in Ukraine. In this it is supported by the countries of Europe and the United States.
 
Kiev will not accept it
The difference between the positions of United States on one side, and France and Germany on the other, is that the Europeans are willing to freeze the conflict, while the US is interested in its defrosting. Visits by officials from the United States are usually accompanied by a provocation from the Ukrainian side in the conflict zone. In the background of strengthening the international position of Russia, in the course of the operation in Syria, the United States needs to open a second front against Russia.
 
The Minsk agreement does not satisfy anyone

The Minsk agreement about Donbass provides temporary peace, but does not satisfy any of the parties. Ukraine, even in the case of a return of the republics of Novorossiya, will not get Crimea back, and will continue to insist on its return. Russia can neither renounce  Crimea nor can it make serious concessions about Novorossiya. Further concessions threaten a protest movement explosion inside the country. The Kremlin conceded all that was possible, but it does not satisfy Kiev, which is supported by the Americans. Europeans have become hostages on the one hand, in their subordinate position in relation to the US, and on the other they desire to prevent a serious conflict with Russia. They are doing all they can to put pressure on Russia to make concessions, thereby making the situation desperate.

Forecast

The Minsk agreement about Donbass provides temporary peace, but does not satisfy any of the parties. Ukraine, even in the case of a return of the republics of Novorossiya, will not get Crimea back, and will continue to insist on its return. Russia can neither renounce  Crimea nor can it make serious concessions about Novorossiya. Further concessions threaten a protest movement explosion inside the country. The Kremlin conceded all that was possible, but it does not satisfy Kiev, which is supported by the Americans. Europeans have become hostages on the one hand, in their subordinate position in relation to the US, and on the other they desire to prevent a serious conflict with Russia. They are doing all they can to put pressure on Russia to make concessions, thereby making the situation desperate.

Related links
Geopolitics of Ukrainian conflict. Elite - the key to understanding. Part II
External control over Ukraine using network technologies
From Ukraine to the Middle East, the West maintains strange alliances