Is NATO Showing Subtle Signs of War Fatigue in Ukraine?

February 14, 2022. This date will be forever etched in the memory of every Ukrainian and every Russia. On this day, Russian tanks rolled across the border, commencing an intricate military operation, aiming not only at the Russian-speaking Donbas region, but also at the Ukrainian Capital itself, sparking an immediate response from America and Europe.

What originally followed was a show of their NATO unity against the Russia. They imposed sanctions and punished oligarchs close to the Russian president. They shut down communications with Russia, opening the floodgate to hundreds of thousands Ukrainian refugees, and armed Ukraine to fight Moscow throughout 2022. They also went on a diplomatic offensive to ring-fence Russia.

But a year later, is this western bravado starting to wane? Has war fatigue started to set in? Has NATO becoming war-weary or is it now starting to believe that the price of continued escalation might become unacceptable? Is there some silent calculation that Ukraine's President Zalenski not heeding hints that some compromise should be sought? After all, every conflict ends with a political solution.

I ask these questions because the leaders who promised to help Ukraine, who made grand pledges of helping Zalenski for as long as it takes, now seem to be in two minds, especially France. I am not saying that western leaders themselves are saying this. Ironically, the pressure is coming from the East and in this case the Prime minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki who subtly pointed that the West is becoming tired of the Ukraine situation. He said these exact words spoken in an interview with the Polish state broadcaster. “A few months ago, the discussions were on a different emotional level and the interest was different. The West, i.e. the ‘free world’ is a little tired and would like to live a normal life today, I see this very clearly and I want to warn world leaders because Russia is patient and looks to tighten its grip on Ukraine in the long term.”

This statement is both intriguing and rare in its honesty. The question is, what made the Polish Prime Minister Morawiecki say this? Is there a growing collective war fatigue in the west? Or was he referring to someone in particular? We don't know yet, but recently one European country has on multiple occasions admitted that restraint should be the new watch word. I'm talking about Germany which has repeatedly stressed that it does not want to be drawn further into this conflict and that it is not in a position to send more tanks to Ukraine. This was at the Davos Summit earlier this year. A reporter asked the German Chancellor why his country was hesitant about supplying tanks to Ukraine. What was Olaf Scholz said in response? He shifted the responsibility on other countries, the likes of America and some of its NATO partners. Let me quote his response: “We are never doing something just by ourselves, but together with others, especially the US which are very important in this common task to defend the Ukrainian independence and sovereignty. We are working together with them. We are discussing with them.”

Barely hours after this statement was made, Olaf Scholz made another remark. This one was even more striking. He said he does not want the war in Ukraine to become a war between Russia and NATO. He said Berlin has set conditions for United States on exports of German tanks to Ukraine. He said Germany will send the tanks so long as the US agrees to do the same.

What is all this about? Ukraine recently asked the West for more heavy battle tanks. Around 300 of them. Ukraine says this will help them regain momentum on the battlefield. Poland and Finland have said that they will be sending Leopard 2 tanks to Kiev. The Leopard 2 is a third generation German main battle tank developed by Krauss-Maffei in the 1970s. To export this, Poland and Finland need permission from Germany because these tanks were originally made in Germany. They cannot be re-exported without Berlin's permission. And just why is Berlin refusing to give this permission? Because Germany feels it has already done enough to support Ukraine and implies that the others have gone far less especially the United States, given the American wealth and military prowess. This is incorrect. Biden wants to send $2 billion to Ukraine which has outraged many Americans in spite of all the domestic problems that we have here in the US. Germany for that matter says America should send its own Abram tanks which are better equipped for the battlefield. The US wants every country to make their own sovereign decisions. Decisions that should not be based on what the others are doing.

A bitter face-off has followed and it's unlikely to end anytime soon. Meanwhile, Ukraine says it is running out of time and they are paying for it with people's lives. This only highlights the kind of internal disagreements that have affected the corridors of power in the west. Has the west succeeded in the “compassion test” on Ukraine? When it comes to dealing with the real challenges, the question is, is there an explanation for the mood change? Why are these divisions emerging? There are a host of reasons.

Reason number one: This conflict has been going on for over a year now. It has morphed into a complex and protracted flaws with no clear outcome or end in sight. No one will admit it, but the fact is that the west is slowly running out of both weapons stocks and patience.

Reason number two: Europe has started getting plagued with multiple crises. At the top is high inflation leading to strikes and general public discontent plus the Wuhan virus is not going anywhere. These problems are undermining the west’s support to Ukraine.

Reason number three: Divergent interpretations and views. Not every country wants to ostracize Moscow and prohibit trade with Russia. Not every country wants to impose sanctions on Russia. Many of them still need Moscow to meet their needs and this difference of opinion is now getting wider.

Reason number four: Domestic politics. After over a year of this conflict, most people in western nations say they want their leaders to focus more on their internal issues. Issues which they say have been sidelined as a result of this conflict. A recent poll in the US gives us an idea. It was recently conducted by Gallup Poll. It asked the American citizens what issue(s) should be Joe Biden's top priority. Inflation received 38%. The world's energy crisis received 12%, healthcare 15%, racial divide 8% percent. And what about the conflict in Ukraine? Only 8% of the voters said this should be a priority.

What does that tell you? That not just the western leaders, but the people have also become weary of the Ukraine. They want their governments to focus on their domestic problems and not Ukraine's complications. It is exactly this war fatigue that’s making military aid to Ukraine a complex task to say the least. And guess what? This fatigue is precisely what Russia is counting on. Russia hopes that the voters will punish their leaders for worrying about events in Ukraine instead of problems cropping up at home. Russia is hoping that NATO has sense this. And even if it has, will NATO be able to do anything about it? We have our doubts.