Pakistan and Changing Dynamics of Indian and Russian Relations

In the world of international affairs, there are no permanent allies or adversaries; rather, only interests are paramount. This guideline is followed by every nation state in the globe, and Pakistan is no exception. The foreign policy direction of Pakistan has always been vibrant. As the globe moves from uni-polarity to multi-polarity, Pakistan must adjust its foreign policy priorities to take into account the altering global and regional conditions. A significant global entity and a a state having a pragmatic outlook on the current order of events, like Russia, has arisen. Recently, Russia has been able to demonstrate both its global and regional importance, it is also reevaluating its approach to South Asia. Pakistan must thus shed its Cold War baggage and move toward a different relationship with the regional power based on collaboration and mutual trust while retaining stability in its bilateral relations with the US since Pakistan is a strategically significant country in this area. Assessment Pakistan's bilateral ties with Russia and Russia’s ties with India, as well as the current developing trends in these interactions, and to determine Pakistan's choices for achieving and securing its foreign policy goals through balanced and stable relations with multiple countries.

Russian's growing interest in trade and investment relations with Pakistan also provide opportunities for close interaction between these two countries. The bilateral relations between Pakistan and Russia on certain issues of common interests including trade cooperation, countering terrorism, drug trafficking, and regional stability. Bilateral relations- cooperation in various fields of mutual interest between Pakistan and Russia have been examined. Multiple aspects of the Russian strategy towards India and Pakistan and ideas have been propagated on how to Pakistan can benefit from the designs of the Russian strategy and on how it can capitalize on the growing distance between the India and Russia.

The recent closeness between Pakistan and Russia will help set new milestones for both countries in the future and strengthening the regional cooperation. If Russia tries to get closer to Pakistan for its interests, India may lean more towards the United States to find better prospects for its interests. The United States of America along with India could create a problematic situation for Pakistan by providing extraordinary assistance to India to improve its position in the region and to wash away many of the stains on its diplomatic and military capabilities. In the event of any such situation, the United States and its western allied region can raise a new security issue and reassure India that Russia's changing diplomatic and strategic priorities are dangerous to its security.

The new developments in this phase has brought forth the stage of realpolitik. America is an expert in this game as it certainly would not want or tolerate Pakistan entering the realm of Russia and China. As far as China is concerned, things are going well, but Pakistan's inclination towards Russia is very provocative for the United States and India. The possibility of a strategic partnership between Russia and Pakistan is hard but probable as the centers of power in the world are changing or new centers of power are being formed. Therefore, in the new world order, the best relations with Russia are the guarantee of Pakistan's security.

In the current international setup, the platform of SCO has provided an opportunity for improving the bilateral relations between Pakistan and Russia on certain issues of common interests including trade cooperation, countering terrorism, drug trafficking, and regional stability. The socio-economic and political situation in the region of South Asia is not stable; the possibility of conflict here is quite high. From the socio-economic and political perspective of these regions, the security of Russia's southern borders depends on it. It is in Russia's interest to develop cooperation with all countries of these regions both in bilateral and multilateral formats Amongst these countries, Pakistan’s geo-strategic importance cannot be ignored. Pakistan is at the junction of important geopolitical region of Asia, with a powerful army and nuclear weapons. The withdrawal of the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan has immeasurably increased Pakistan's role in ensuring the security of South and Central Asia. One such state, Russia is interested in building good neighborly relations with Pakistan.

Indian-Russian relationship is poised to undergo an even greater transformation for four reasons: Russia’s pursuit of ever-closer ties with China. The greater importance for Russia of its ties with China than with India. Russia’s diminished importance for India’s foreign policy agenda. India’s growing security relationship with the United States.

For Russia is leaning closer to China and aligning with China due to isolation from the US and Europe is making it difficult for Russia to maintain its current security ties with India. India is seeking to decrease its reliance on Russian arms. The Russian action in Ukraine has exacerbated it. India is reportedly considering the cancellation of contracts for Russian weapons systems, due to western sanctions, which is to the detriment of Russian defense industry. Russia has to come to grip with the reality that India intents to fully disentangle itself from Russian arms transfers and cooperation in the long term. Even in the recent UNGA meeting going against its closest ally, India voted against Russia's demand for a secret ballot in the UN General Assembly on a draft resolution to condemn Moscow's ‘illegal’ annexation of four regions of Ukraine, whereas Pakistan remained neutral in support of Russia.

It would be prudent for Pakistan working on the same lines as India and expand military ties with Russia, it should expand its military assistance to increase its readiness and capability, along other with trade and technical cooperation. Also it would be wise for Pakistan to diplomatically convey to Russia that India is playing a double game with Russia by partnering with the US. As India has avoided condemnation against the sanctions regime posed on Russia, even after years of friendship. India could play role of spoiler in the Russian Chinese partnership, in its bid to counter China it has been massively improving ties with the US and its allies as both the US and Japan are significant Russian rivals. India exploits US to gain weaponry to curtail Chinese influence in the region but India aggressing towards China is far from reality. Moreover, India has made an effort to limit its reliance on weapons of Russian origin in order to strengthen its relations with the US, to gain access to better American, Israeli, or European weapons, and is investing in a domestic arms sector. Russian action in Ukraine has only stoked this shift of India to the west. India saw Russia as a balancer against China and Pakistan but this has changed due to the increased ties between Russia and China, also the recent Russian overtures to Pakistan.

India’s transactional approach towards Russia and rubbing off of the US has now become blatant. As India is shifting from its use of Russians MiG’s to French Rafael’s which is ultimately severely harmful for the Russian fighter jet industry and reduces their sale prospects to other nations. Even some leaders of the current ruling party of India (BJP) regard Russia as no longer being a trusted partner of India. With Russia, India has distanced itself a great deal as India's ruling BJP has termed Russia an unreliable partner and said that India should no longer rely on Russia for its national security interests. Besides signing several defense deals and agreements with the US, India has made a clear choice where it stands. 

Furthermore, the experts in India suggest that India must support the “liberal internationalist” or “American exceptionalism” agenda regardless of the India-Russia relations, showing an Indian tilt toward the US in India’s strategic calculus of growing ties with the United States. India being a member of partnerships such as QUAD, I2U2 among others has given Russia the incentive to look to Pakistan, given the speed at which Pakistan and Russian relations are changing, India is gradually taking a different stance against Russia as India has moved significantly and decisively into the US camp. India has reduced its defense related imports from Russia a great deal and have become a pronounced “Strategic Partner” of the US in the Asia-Pacific region.

India is without a doubt a partner of the United States in its alliances. As a result, India and the United States have a strong defense alliance as evidenced by the Industrial Security Agreement (ISA), Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). The signing of the LEMOA, COMCASA and BECA completes the trio of the foundational pacts for extended defense cooperation between India and the United States.

India’s new economic relations only underscore the reversal of fortunes between India and Russia. Outside India’s defense sector, Russia no longer has the upper hand in the relationship to a country that it once considered its client. Russia itself is definitely dissatisfied with India’s actions, especially with regards to the latter’s “strategic partnership” with the United States.

The great-power realignment has resulted in a major shift in the relationship between India and Russia. That shift is still ongoing is certain to be further fueled by the war in Ukraine. India’s economic liberalization against this backdrop has been accompanied by the expansion of economic and political ties with the United States and Europe, away from Russia.

To stress this further the U.S.-Indian rapprochement has occurred against the backdrop of three developments: the burgeoning Russian-Chinese partnership with joint military drills to enhance economic ties. Growing U.S.- Chinese tensions has made India at the epicenter in the US indo Pacific Strategy, and steadily improving Pakistani-Chinese-Russian relations. Military drills with Pakistan could be used by Russia to send a signal to India that if it can move closer to the US, Russia can also do the same by moving closer to Pakistan. Therefore, it is right time for Pakistan to make headways on these developments whilst making inroads into Russian defense industry to expand its partnership with Russia and incentivize Russia to limit its relation with it increasingly fickle ally India. Because the prospects for cooperation between both countries are bright. It is in Russia's interest to develop cooperation with Pakistan’s as its geo-strategic importance cannot be disregarded. Pakistan is at the confluence of important geopolitical regions -South-West and Central Asia, a commanding army with nuclear weapons, is the world's second-largest Muslim state in the world and has a rapidly growing economy.