Mapping Trump's support

Out of the two non-system candidates in the US presidential race, only Donald Trump has a real chance. What are the reasons for his success? If we compare a map of the results of the primaries with a map that notes the format of voting (primary or caucus), we will immediately see that almost everywhere Trump is victorious where the vote is most open. His competitors - primarily Ted Cruz - cleverly use administrative resources when the vote is decided during Republican meetings.

The second conclusion is that if we compare these maps with maps of the region where Donald Trump is most popular and where he is not, we can see that, with the exception of Nevada and Arizona, his popularity does not go beyond the old frontier of Appalachians. Cruz, on the contrary, feels good in the Midwest. This geographic feature does not seem to correlate directly with the ethnic origin of inhabitants of these regions - not even with the level of religiosity. However, this factor is most important for Ted Cruz’s support. Trump’s support in some parts of the country and the lack of it in others is explained by a set of other factors, among which the main ones are the political culture and socio-economic factors.

Trump's electorate

A feature of Trump is that he attracts the electorate that was earlier on the margins of G.O.P. Despite his popularity with the well educated, minorities, women as well as white men without a college degree, the white working class from depressed urban and semi-urban areas continues to be the most consolidated group who support him. It is the people who are most disfranchised by the American political system. Traditionally they are inclined to vote for Democrats, but today the Democrats appeal mostly to minorities and hipster urbanites. This is why Trump is most popular between people registered as Democrats, but wants to vote as a Republican. Other Republicans cannot offer them anything. This "Democrats for Trump" phenomenon resembles "Democrats for Reagan" - the same support of white blue collars for a counter system candidate. The only difference is that Trump really is a counter system one.
This is why a map of his support corresponds mainly with the map of the population living in economic distress.

And if we look poverty and inequality maps in the US, we can also see that, with some exclusions, the most depressed areas are also more Trumpist. Thus, the high results of Trump in Texas also may be explained by the same factor.

Population living below the poverty line (by percent)

It is why Trump was victorious in Michigan, with its ghost-city Detroit, in Arizona, as well as in industrial parts of New England and the Mid-Western states (not so depressed by with a large share of blue-collar workers).

The heart of Trump's America and role of political culture

However the majority of the analysts agree, that core region of Trump's support is Appalachia. This cultural region of the USA stretches from the Southern Tier of New York to northern Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia along the ridge of the same name. Appalachia traditionally is associated with poverty and underdevelopment. It is the most economically depressed region of North America, which includes a large part of Pennsylvania, the whole of West Virginia, parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, New York, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi.

The poverty in the region has lasted for centuries, but today it is caused by the decline of the coal mining and logging industries in the 1930’s and deindustrialization in the 1970-1990’s, aggravated by negative impact of the NAFTA agreement. This factor, the culture of frontier and pioneer spirit of the first European inhabitants, as well as ethnical traits of Scotch-Irish settlers, who were the first and major wave of colonists to Appalachia, merged in the most rebel political culture within the US, which appreciates aggressiveness, independence, masculinity, and praises the egoism of a strong man. It is should be mentioned that the first settlers came to the Appalachia from the belligerent border regions of Scotland, Ireland, and Northern England.

Appalachians traditionally opposed the government as well as their lowland neighbors, and supported the populist charismatic politicians. Today it is the heart of Trump's America.

It is why traditionally they are more moderate and today more prosperous, but agrarian Mid-Western states, firstly populated by descendants of Germans and other migrants of the 19th century who brought a more conformist political culture (compared to both Appalachians, English radical Protestants of the North East, and Confederates of the South) inclined to other candidates. Their political culture has roots in another ethnical and - more importantly -historical background.

Forecast

Based on the laws we have discussed, it is not difficult to understand that after the victory in the primaries on April 26th, Trump is waiting for a difficult period. He is only supported by only one state where the majority of the population exactly will support him. This is the Appalachian State of West Virginia. Another state where Trump has serious support, both from the population and from Governor Chris Christie from New Jersey.

He has little support in liberal and non-depressed Indiana as well as in rural Nebraska, so Cruz and Kasich are likely to win these regions, where the winner will take all the votes of delegates. The Northern Pacific Coast States of Washington and Oregon is not Trumpist in their political culture and economical situation, and are more likely to prefer more moderate candidates. However Trump has some support in remote Oregon. In Washington, he has almost no chance, while in Oregon and Montana he may try to get his own way. In these circumstances, achieving the Republican nomination by not winning California with its exclusively awarded 172 delegates is almost impossible.