Kazakh Maidan – Encircling China?

Kazakhs were the leaders of Eurasianism. But it is hard to make Eurasianism without Russia, and Moscow, as usual, let itself be dragged away from the Continent's integration with some European crap. Astana (Nur-Sultan) started to play with multi-vectority, and that always ends badly for the countries of the East. And Yanukovych, and even Lukashenko could tell a lot about it to the Elbasy.

Russia - Time to Come Back to Eurasia

Of course, those in the streets do not have to be anti-Russian at all. As on the Euromaidan - they only want washing machines to be cheaper (gas cost less) and vors steal less. But it can go out as usual. Mukhtar Ablyazov, the Kazakh oligarch known for his professional involvement in the subsequent Maidans – is already trying to ensure it. That is why if Russians do not help, even those unwilling and not asking – they will have not another Bolotnaya, but also Red Square. Full of people. Or, worse – Dvortsovaya Ploshchad. You know - this square in front of the Winter Palace ...

And for the sake of clarity: the whole of Kazakhstan needs to be saved. Sending counter-terrorism forces is of course a step in the right direction – but still not enough insufficient. It will probably be possible to bring order to Kazakhstan. AND WHAT? Zhas Otan boys will be able to go back to bullying people for speaking Russian and Dungan? Tokayev will still be straddling between East and West? The Limited Counter-Terrorism Operation is just a method. Russia cannot just encroach here and somewhere in the interests of the local oligarchy. It is impossible to save Kazakhstan without restoring deep Eurasian integration. Without it, such crises throughout Central Asia will only be more frequent and more difficult to deal with.

That would also be a serious mistake to limit the operation only to areas inhabited by the Russian minority. Lugansk-bis will not do anything geopolitically. The Armenian lesson here is probably even more instructive than the Ukrainian one (although this is the more explicit). Apparently, Armenia did not go completely to the other side – but how many troubles could cause! The whole problem is that the Russian Federation, even in its present shape, is going to be Navalny-like. It limits itself. Does not want to understand what is the true HOME of the Russians. Does not want to think in terms of the entire former Soyuz. “We can't decide for others anymore”. “We have our own problems to be solved”. Yes. You have. Because you once pulled out of the Eastern Bloc. Because you have collapsed your own, great, powerful state. Also having own problems, of course. But now the riddle: do you want LESS or MORE of them in the future? The choice is yours. And part of this choice – is also in Kazakhstan.

Or go back further. Until the ice rink near GUM wants to democratise and separate. The whole problem with Russia boils down to the fact that it is not the Soviet Union, it is not imperial or expansionist, and it does not even try to reach even close abroad. Even now, the representatives of the present Kazakh elite, especially those from the Nazarbayev family, who are already in Moscow, are treated rather reluctantly. And not (only) because they have been patronising and arrogant towards Russia. That it is the current Government that has been committed to pushing through the bizarre Westernisation of the Kazakh alphabet and culture. No, the Russians play inaccessible not out of contempt for whimpering – but out of Slavs’ innate laziness.

Last Hope in China?

This Russians’ procrastination has always costed them much. And all the neighbours - even more. But be honest – let’s not dramatize too much. Despite its impressive appearance on the map, it is not Kazakhstan that is the key and most important in Central Asia, but Uzbekistan. This one fell into the hands of the West right away, three decades ago. And now slowly, very slowly and inconsistently - but trying to get out of them, following the trail of Erdogan and Əliyev. Conclusion? Multi-vectorism pays off when you go from West to East, never the opposite.

Because a variant that is currently widely discussed in the Russian media is also possible. That it is an internal game. Deliberate raising of moods – only hard to guess, by the young poodles of President Kassym Jomart-Tokayev? Or maybe by the always hungry Nazarbayev’s Alabais? The problem is, we have seen it before. I have been to Kiev several times during the Maidan, and then again just before its end. And until the end, the Yanukovychs were sure not only that they had everything in hand. They had no doubts that this was an excellent opportunity to clear and close the ranks, change the guard within the camp, check loyalty and cut rotten branches off. And the president himself was sure that thanks to this jumble in the square, he could play games with both the West and Russia. And it turned out as it turned out. And then I only hope that China has better network there than Russia had… Which, in such situations, usually cannot be counted on - unless the Russians themselves take up arms and some more conscious oligarch pours money, and then pushes where necessary.

But over there, there is also Beijing. Which probably perfectly understands that the next colourful revolution in Central Asia is no longer (only) encircling Russia, but especially China. And the new regime could be not intentionally anti-Russian, but it well, if it happens… But it will definitely be anti-Chinese, on the very border of Xinjiang. So even if Russia freaks out again - there will be hope in the Chinese. For all of Eurasia.