Russia raises the Turkish invasion of Iraq at the UN Security Council

On December 8th , Russia plans to convene a closed meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the question of Turkey's actions in Iraq and Syria.

The Russian side intends to raise the issue of the deployment of Turkish troops in northern Iraq without the consent of Baghdad. Any decision on the basis of consultations is not expected.

The current crisis

On December 4th, Turkey deployed a group of its armed forces, including about 130 soldiers, tanks and artillery, to the camp of Kurdish militias in northern Iraq. Here, the Turkish military claims it is training Kurdish soldiers to attack Mosul, which had been captured by ISIS. Iraqi officials said that Ankara sent troops without the consent of Baghdad and demanded to withdraw them. After that, the Turkish authorities have promised that they will not deploy any more troops to northern Iraq, but are reportedly refusing to withdraw troops that are already there. Right now there is a general pause, as parties are waiting for the international community's reaction.

Iraqi strategic puzzle

After the US-led coalition's military invasion of Iraq in 2003, it became an area of perpetual war. It is in Iraq where ISIS was born as a result of the “marriage” between former military and security officers of Saddam's regime and former Al-Qaeda jihadists. Today the north-west of the country, with its major city Mosul, is occupied by ISIS. Another big city in the North, Tikrit, was recaptured in March 2015 by Iraqi government forces. The area under ISIS-control is populated mostly by Sunni-Muslims, disadvantaged after the fall of the Saddam regime, with the central government being dominated by another religious community – Shia Muslims. It is the main reason why many Sunni Muslims in Iraq supported ISIS. It reportedly receives foreign support from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and has strong business-ties with Turkey.

The area, controlled by ISIS also includes captured territories of Iraq's main religious minorities: Christian Assyrians and Yezidi, who became victims of ISIS terror.

The southern part of the country, with the main cities Bagdad and Basra, is controlled by the official Iraqi government. It is populated mostly by Shia-Muslims. They constitute 60% of the Iraqi population, and always have the majority in national elections. From 2005 onward, Iraq exists as a parliamentary republic continuously ruled by Shia-governments. Shia-parties dominate the Parliament also. The current Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi is a Shia-Muslim too. American influence on the Iraqi leadership is successfully contested by Iran, which uses religious affinity to Iraqi Shias.  Iran is providing military aid to the official government of Iraq and the Shia-militias (Popular Mobilization Forces) to counter the advance of ISIS. Iran also sent to Iraq a number of military advisers, and it was reported that Iranian soldiers participated in battles against ISIS.

The north-east of the country, with the main city of Kirkuk, is controlled by an autonomous Kurdish government.  It behaves as a de-facto independent body and is controlled by the US and Turkey.   Unlike Syrian and Turkish Kurds who are perceived as enemies of Turkish state, because they support the liberation of south-eastern Turley inhabited by Kurds, Iraqi Kurds are act as Turkish satellites. Military forces of Iraqi Kurdistan are trained by American, British, and Turkish instructors. Iran tries to establish its influence in the region, but these attempts do not bring any palpable success.

The ethnical and religious fragmentation of Iraq is also a strategic fragmentation. Each of the three parts of the country is orientated toward different geopolitical poles: ISIS to Persian Gulf countries, the official government (Shia-territories) towards Iran, Iraqi Kurds towards the US and Turkey.

The participants of the Civil War in Iraq and Syria. Kurds (green), Governmental forces (red), ISIS (gray).

Source: http://www.juancole.com/images/2010/12/religion_ehtnic_map416.gif

Imperial legacy and modern geopolitics

Modern Iraq, like other nation states in the Middle East is an artificial construct, created after WWI by Britain and France as a result of the partition of the former Ottoman Empire. It does not correspond to a real ethnic and cultural map of the region. The  Sunni north-western and the Shia southern parts of modern Iraq in the Ottoman Empire were seen as different regions: the first was called "Al-Jazira”, the second – “Iraq”, properly. However a  possible division of Iraq will not solve the problems because both Turkey and Iran aspire to control northern Iraq and Kurdistan in particular.

1803 Cedid Atlas, showing the area today known as Iraq divided between "Al Jazira" (pink), "Kurdistan" (blue), "Iraq" (green), and "Al Sham" (yellow)

Before its inclusion in the Ottoman Empire, the major parts of Mesopotamia (where modern Iraq is situated) had traditionally been a land contested both by the Ottomans and Iran. While Ankara declared its turn to a neo-Imperial or neo-Ottoman policy, and Iran started strengthening its influence in Iraq, the old quarrel was destined to resume.

From an Iranian nationalist point of view, Iraq including Iranian-speaking Kurdistan, is a part of Greater Iran, a space that used to be a part of the Iranian State and was greatly influenced by Iranian culture. From a Shia-religious point of view, southern Iraq is a part of the Shia world and northern Iraq is a land bridge to Syria and Lebanon with their large Shia communities. Both points of view converge on the importance of northern Iraq for Iran. It is also the space where Turkish and Iranian interests overlap.

Greater Iran on the map. Source: https://hormozgan96.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/great-iran-map-irane7000saale-com.jpg

Turkey is interested in maintaining its influence in Iraqi Kurdistan, to project its power in the region, and to prevent Kurds from entering into another sphere of influence where its political and military potential can be used against Turkey, with its large Kurdish population.

The growing Turkish presence in Syrian Kurdistan undermines, primarily, the Iranian interest there. It is this which has provoked the harsh Iranian reaction. In the Russian-Turkish conflict, Russia also is interested in supporting the Shia-government in Bagdad and Iran as Russian allies, and as the main participants of a Russia-Shia geopolitical Axis.

Forecast

Russia will continue its pressure on Turkey on the international arena. However the Turkish position will be backed at the UN Security Council by the US.  Russia will entertain the possibility of directly entering the war in Iraq in response to Turkish actions.

This crisis will strengthen the Russian-Iranian alliance, showing common interest and mutual support. The Russian-Iranian block might also use the threat to look at the Iranian nuclear deal differently, because of the changing dynamics near the Iranian border.  The main aim of both countries is to pressure the US to withdraw its support from Turkey. 

Russia
Iraq
Turkey
UN