The adventurous actions of Turkey demonstrate that they have a carte-blanche to act with force. These actions are approved by their external protector in the region, the US. They coincide with main aim of American foreign policy in Iraq – decreasing the Iranian influence. Also by these actions, Turkey replied to Russian critics in ostensibly showing that it does not buy oil from ISIS, but rather fights them.
Questionable activities are taking place in the Kurdish northern part of Iraq, which is not controlled by the official government. It is a pro-American leadership supported by Turkey in its conflict with Russia, claiming that it can substitute Russian gas on its own. The position of the authorities of Iraqi Kurdistan show that Kurds do not constitute an independent force in the region. They are mostly depending on the US support, and act in American interests. While Turkish Kurds are fighting for independence, Iraqi Kurdistan welcomes Turkish invasion.
Iran is the main patron of the Shia Iraqi government. The invasion by Turkey who reportedly aim to retake Mosul from ISIS, implies a decrease of Iran’s influence in the region.
At times, Iran has changed his rhetoric towards Turkey. Previously it had a neutral stance in the Russian-Turkish conflict. Turkish activities made them more closer to Russia. Iran harshly criticized the Turkish invasion. Also, Iranian officials declared that they can prove ISIS oil smuggling to Turkey. Turkey has become the main tool in American hands against the Russia-Iranian coalition in the region.
As Iraqi officials declared that they can approach Russia for military support, as it was done by Syria, the chances of Russian military involvement in Iraq are increasing. This creates a new pretext for direct military confrontation between Russia and Turkey, and Turkey and Iran. The war is not in Turkey's interest if they want to project their power in the region but not in conflict with two former partners. They will try to avoid a war. The US will undertake new attempts to push the countries to war, to weaken the main regional powers - Iran and Turkey - and undermine Russian power.
