For the first time in the primaries, both parties' candidates involved challenge the existing political establishment. The Republican camp has billionaire Donald Trump, who propels a populist program of limited migration, protection of gun rights, non-expansionist foreign policy and rapprochement with Russia. In the ranks of the Democrats is populist social rhetoric used by Senator Bernie Sanders. While Trump uses the electoral potential of the conservative right white population, disappointed in the Republican mainstream, Sanders is the first openly leftist candidate who enjoys strong support.
According to opinion polls conducted on the eve of the primaries, Trump has the overall lead in Iowa. Trump is ready to the vote of 30, 5% of Republicans. For his nearest rival Ted Cruz - 24%. For Hillary Clinton, 48% of Democrats prepared to vote. For Bernie Sanders - 42%.
A feature of the primaries in Iowa is that they maintain the process of caucuses - party meetings in the field, the results of which will determine the winner. The phenomenon of "caucus" is purely American, and the word comes from one of the most common etymologies - one of the languages of the North American Indians, meaning “meeting”.
From a technical point of view, the primaries in Iowa are organized in a very complicated way. First of all they lack the usual protocol of strangers voting by ballot. Meetings are held after 19.00 in public buildings: schools, churches, etc. The representatives of the candidates appear to the audience, after which people write the names of their favorite candidate on the pieces of papers. Votes are counted immediately and the winners are announced. The results are sent then to the county and the state capital and are then calculated. Republicans voting among losing candidates are distributed proportionally, so there may be cases of multiple winners.
At the Democratic caucuses, following statements by the representatives of the Democratic candidates, people are physically divided into groups according to the candidates they choose. The groups that cover less than 15% of those present are dissolved and their members become free agents and can join the other groups. These elections usually turn into noisy and chaotic skirmishes, and the atmosphere at the meeting is akin to the Brownian motion of molecules. Voices of losers are also distributed proportionally.
A specific feature of Iowa is that the State is not a miniature copy of the Americas as a whole. Iowa's population is mainly white (92%) and is engaged in agriculture. Also, the average age of state residents is higher than that of the whole of America. Iowans tend to adhere to religious and conservative values and are highly sensitive to family issues and the issue of abortion. At the same time anti-migrant rhetoric receives no special understanding because of the small number of foreign workers.
Despite the gap of a few percent in the polls, the position of Donald Trump in Iowa is most precarious. He has the highest negative rating among the Republican candidates - 47%. His previous positive views on abortion, divorce, and his scandalous private life reduces the chances of support amongst conservative evangelicals, who make up the majority of Republicans in the electorate across the country and in the state as well. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz, who opposes abortion, enjoys their unequivocal support.
Representatives of the candidates play an important role in the caucuses. Ted Cruz can rely on the disciplined network of the Pro-Life movement, activists who are known to everyone in every little village on the positive side. Trump is a new candidate. He cannot rely on a network of non-governmental organizations or the structures associated with the Republican establishment. His anti-mainstream views attract people from the political and social fringes, which alone can be his representatives. These people usually do not go to meetings, and those that do - not the fact that they will cause a positive reaction from the audience in relation to their candidate.
Most likely, Ted Cruz will win the Iowa primaries among Republicans. Donald Trump will be the second. An unlikely but possible scenario is a first place for Trump in the primaries in Iowa, but it’s difficult for him; it will mean a positive outlook in other states. The primaries for Democrats are likely to be won by Hillary Clinton.
