Pakistan PM’s Visit to Russia: Building a Foundation for a Strong Partnership

Since its independence, Pakistan and the then Soviet Union have had to traverse over different phases in the changing international order and the global political structure. The Cold War divided their stance in the global arena often making them stand on opposite sides of the so-called Iron Curtain. With the unfolding convergences in the changing geostrategic environment, especially in the wake of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, signs of regional economic integration have started to forge a potential foundation for a productive partnership between the two states. The high-level bilateral exchanges in recent years have started to culminate in prospects for major achievements. The upcoming visit of Pakistan’s Prime Ministers Imran Khan to Russia is filled with possibilities that the two countries can work together not only on bilateral cooperation but on regional and multilateral platforms as major players in the geostrategic future of their regions and have a strong say in the global political structure.

Post-Cold War Era: Rebuilding the Foundation

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia pivoted towards forging ties with Asia. Baby steps were taken by Pakistan and Russia towards improving ties. In the 1990s some high-level visits by Foreign Ministers and former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in 1999 to Russia led to a discussion on economic cooperation and the formation of a joint commission to promote economic and trade cooperation. The post-9/11 era prepared grounds for redefining relations between Pakistan and Russia which were not cordial during Soviet times. The shift of the US towards India has also propelled both Russia and Pakistan to look for other partners especially in the region when they both seem to be on the same side of the geopolitical competition and the current geopolitical realities.

There have been subsequent high-level interactions between leaders and officials over the years that have resulted in the formation of Joint Working Groups to work on issues such as economic, counterterrorism, and strategic cooperation. There has been enhancement in defense cooperation with the signing of an agreement in 2014 on military cooperation, international security, counterterrorism, and arms control activities among others as well as collaboration in military fields and peacekeeping operations including joint military exercises. In Russia’s Foreign Policy Concept of 2008, Pakistan has been earmarked as an ‘important regional player’ that it can develop bilateral and multilateral relations with and since then there has been an upward trend in economic, military, and high-level interactions.

Pakistan has also facilitated Russia’s entry as an observer state into the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) while Russia has also helped in supporting Pakistan’s observer status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and its subsequent accession in 2017. Pakistan is seen as a key security partner for Russia in terms of its role and geostrategic relevance in Afghanistan, especially since the US-led invasion of the country in 2001 and the subsequent withdrawals since then. During a high-level meeting with then Prime Minister Gillani at the SCO in 2011, President Putin stated the importance of Pakistan when he said, “Pakistan is our major trade and economic partner and an important partner in South Asia and the Muslim world.” This has proven to be true with bilateral trade increasing sixfold reaching a record high of $790 million in 2020, a 45% increase from 2019.

Current Era: Emergence of a Partnership

The visit by the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in April 2021 led to many new areas of cooperation for Pakistan and Russia. There was discussion on cooperation on mutual areas of interest that ranged from Afghanistan, bilateral trade, military cooperation, counterterror measures, cooperation in international forums such as the SCO and the United Nations, and regional issues from Palestine, Asia Pacific, and the Middle East. One of the most significant developments has been the signing of a pact in Islamabad regarding the $2.5 billion PakStream Gas Pipeline (PSGP) project on July 15, 2021. This 1,100 km pipeline will likely double the current capacity to transport natural gas from terminals in Karachi to Punjab and is expected to be operational by 2023. Russia has been looking to increase its LNG production and exports to other gas markets since Europe has been leaning towards the US and with Pakistan suffering from a shortfall of energy this is a very positive development. The Russian foreign minister's visit also highlighted that the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission and Rosatom are exploring cooperation in nuclear energy for industry and medicine purposes.

In late September 2021, the Pakistan-Russia Joint Military Consultative Committee (JMCC) met for the third time with discussions on mutual interest and cooperation in areas like the situation in Afghanistan, military training, defense cooperation, and intelligence cooperation. Both countries also held a two-week-long counter-terrorism exercise in Russia with special forces from Pakistan. Both countries also have held mutual consultations on Afghanistan’s humanitarian crisis. Now that the US withdrawal is all but permanent Russia and Pakistan have a strategic role and interest in a stable Afghanistan. The recent meeting in December 2021 between the national security advisers of Pakistan and Russia, Dr. Moeed Yusuf and Nikolai Patrushev respectively reiterated mutual areas of interest. Relations between the two countries have also taken another upward trajectory since President Putin’s remarks about Islamophobia which is a cause close to Prime Minister Imran Khan’s international agenda over the last few years. Putin’s supportive statement is seen as a positive direction not just for Pakistan-Russia relations but Russia’s with the Muslim World. With such productive agendas in development, the upcoming visit by Imran Khan has a lot of potential to yield various areas of cooperation and create new avenues of mutual interest between the two countries.

Projections from PM’s visit to Russia

This upcoming visit will be focusing on many bilateral and multilateral issues including the current situation in Afghanistan. With Pakistan and Russia having the same agenda both will be discussing how to handle the current situation with the Taliban and the issues that an unstable Afghanistan poses to the region. The humanitarian crisis will be also a point of discussion with the recent statements by US president Biden regarding frozen reserves of Afghanistan not being taken in a positive light, especially with the conditions in Afghanistan. With Russia wanting to play a key diplomatic role in the development of Afghanistan, Pakistan can be seen as a useful partner with its connections to the country. With Russia also moving closer to China a major Pakistan ally the relationship with India could be losing momentum as the US moves closer to India.

The closer ties with China and joining its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have propelled Russia to want to link its Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) with the BRI for a while. Putin has proposed the ‘Greater Eurasian Partnership’ (GEP) that would combine the EAEU member states along with China, Pakistan, Iran, and India. Analysts like Andrew Korybko have dubbed Pakistan as the ‘zipper of Pan Eurasian Integration’ across West, South, and Central Asia as its location strategically can provide a stable oil supply and works with the Russian vision in achieving a ‘Greater Eurasia’. This would work well with Russia also investing in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the BRI. Pakistan needs to get Russia better acquainted with CPEC and what potential role it can play in the GEP. Access for Russia and Central Asian states to Gwadar would be beneficial not just to them but also to Pakistan as it caters to more foreign investment in CPEC.

Also, Russia’s involvement in CPEC could perpetuate the use of Afghanistan as a transit point along with other Central Asian states. This will not only boost trade ties with Russia for Pakistan but also with Central Asian Republics (CARs). The concept of N-CPEC+ with N referring to North would involve the trans-Afghan corridor along with the CARs connecting Russia to Pakistan and CPEC. This could play a major role in promoting the idea of the GEP and the Pan Eurasian Integration.

Another new area of cooperation Pakistan and Russia can cooperate in is the 5th generation warfare mainly known as hybrid warfare. With this new security concern, Pakistan can acquire new technology tools and techniques from Russia as it has used and dealt with this new form of warfare. With both countries having worked on cooperation in the military sphere this emerging area is very important to discuss and find ways to develop collaboration in.

With the upcoming visit of Prime Minister Imran Khan, many hope relations between the two countries keep on moving towards an upward trajectory. Areas of interest like bilateral trade, military cooperation, Afghanistan, and working together on multilateral forums should be the top priority in this visit. The shift in the geopolitical landscape is propelling Pakistan and Russia to find a way to collaborate and forge a stronger partnership that can yield positive results for both.