No Chance for POLEXIT, unless…

Do not be naive! There is no chance for POLEXIT, and Poland will not leave the European Union – unless Washington order to do that. And of course, although triggering infamous “Article 7” against Poland sounds so serious – we will not become the first country ever thrown away from the EU. 

 

 

The main mistake made by analytics, especially the Eastern one is, that they treat member states of the UE as still sovereign subjects, what is no longer the truth after the Lisbon Treaty, signed in Poland by former president Lech Kaczynski and accepted by his brother, Jaroslaw, leader of Law and Justice party (PiS) in 2007. Of course, there are still elements of traditional balance of powers, some countries have a slightly wider margin of freedom, some not – but the rule is obvious: we, Europeans have less to say and decide about internal order in the area between Atlantic and the Bug River – than citizens of the Russian Federation about their state affairs. Some Russians governors are more powerful than prime ministers in the Central/Eastern Europe. Leading bureaucracy has almost full power, and completely zero responsibility for decisions made – and for Poles this is a hard way to understand that fact, unclear, hidden and obscured for last ten years. Yes, Polish almost the same as foreign observers also believe, that we live in an independent country, “proud and getting up from the knees”. And now the time to wake up.

 

For Jaroslaw Kaczynski and ruling Law and Justice party Brussels decision is a gift from the heaven. Blind and loving voters at last have the ultimate proof, that “only PiS can defend our national interests against Eurocrats”. On the other hand, pro-government media expresses very clear, but very exposed position: “there is no other choice for Poland, but European one”. Just, like many times in our history – we are ruled by crooks, pretending the greatest patriots…

 

 

Formal pretext of Brussels intervention (changes in some organization questions of Polish courts) is also often misinterpreted. Poles believe that new Acts will establish completely new and long expected system of law enforcement. That is why more than 60% of voters support propaganda campaign realised by the Law and Justice. But… this is also only propaganda, “smoke and mirrors”, like in the magician’s cabinet. PiS forced only some cosmetically changes in procedures. Ruling party wants just to decide exclusively about positioning the chairmen of regional courts and voting for the National Council of the Judiciary and that does not differ much from the valid system of the other European states. The problem is, that Poles recognize our law enforcement system as extremely unfair and injustice. Every main party, group of interest, oligarchs and even foreign centres of influence have their own judges. And unfortunately – that will not change after all these “reforms”. So, for the truth - the game is not worth the candle. So that is a whole paradox – Poland is punished for something, that for real did not happen, but Poles feel, that must unite around the government, although politicians cheated them again. Welcome to Poland, that is a quintessence of our freaky history and policy…

 

 

But, unfortunately – that is not all the story. We should remember, that in its essence that Law and Justice is extremely… pro-European party. In the early 90’s Jaroslaw Kaczynski represented in Poland interest of… Germany, and his first party, the Centre Agreement (PC) was established for German money from the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. When we read exactly what is written in a program of the Law and Justice – we can find there proposals of organizing common European army and giving even MORE power to the European institutions, e.g. in a field of energy policy. Kaczynski and his men are like their idol, Trump – they pretend to be “non-conformist”, “patriotic”, “anti-system”, but this is only some kind of crying game for voters. The conclusion is obvious – Law and Justice wants much more unified European Union, than it is now – but only if it will be provided by Americans and will be organized in the American way, for the American goals. And that is the only one moot point between Brussel and Warsaw. So, for the truth not the European Commission pushes Poland, but Poland is a pressure instrument used by Americans on Europe. 

 

 

The last and significant element of this puzzle that is Theresa May’s visit in Warsaw. Formally – for establishing closer cooperation against “Russian threat”. But of course, Washington, London, and even some people in Warsaw know, that first of all - there in no “Russian threat”, and secondly – if it exists May and Kaczynski are not able to scare Putin and Russians… But if not because of Moscow, so what for May has come to Poland? Most likely answer is, that this visit is to scare and discipline rest of Europe – “all the King’s men are on duty to follow His orders!”. In sum – the POLEXIT would be possible only at this moment, when Americans recognize, that EU is not needed any more for his purposes, or if Europe starts to liberate from American domination. Unfortunately, we can be sure, that in present conditions and even in the foreseeable future - Poland could be last but one country, which can even think about real sovereignty and independence… 

 

But what are conclusions for Poland from all this mess for now? Well… Last time, when British Prime Minister proposed Poland “strategical alliance” – that move started the Second World War. And we better watch out, if there is no next one just around the corner. From the other hand – the last one gave Poles unique 45 years of peace and development. So, maybe would it be worth this last effort?