Standoff in Yerevan: the road to Armenia's defeat

25.07.2016
Armenia

The putsch attempt continues in Armenia as events unfold. Recently, the bandits who seized the police station in Yerevan's Erebuni district, released all the hostages which they had previously held. However the police have stated that they are not going to storm the building. Armenian President Serge Sargsyan even agreed to talk with their leader, Zhirayr Sefilyan, who is now in prison. The condition for negotiations which the president is considering is the surrender of the rebels. Earlier, gunmen demanded that the press center nearby be reopened.

Rampant impunity

The bandits who killed a police officer during the storming of the building on the 17th of July, meanwhile, burned a police car and shot down a drone being used by Armenian security services. The rebels are pushing on the authorities to meet their demands. In particular, this includes the resignation of the incumbent president and the release of Jirayr Sefilian. Otherwise, they threaten to start a full scale rebellion. Next to the captured police building, rallies are held in support of them.

Zugzwang - forced response

The elimination of this group consisting of veterans of the Karabakh war may become a trigger for a pro-American revolution in Armenia. These combatants maintain a pro-American oppositional position, and they insist on a resumption of war in Karabakh - a scenario that would benefit the United States. In turn, the inaction of the authorities has also played against them, demonstrating the weakness of the regime, inspiring opposition and other groups of armed thugs to increase their activity.

Armenia as a bargaining chip

In Armenia, we are witnessing a classic "Maidan" spike: nationalist gunmen plus liberals. Their success may lead to catastrophic consequences surpassing the Ukrainian ones: civil war in Armenia, the resumption of the Karabakh conflict, large-scale regional war. At the same time, Russia is unlikely to support the rebels in the conflict, especially against the background of improved relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, respectively. Armenia is doomed to failure. However, this inability of Russia to act on Armenia's behalf will ensure its withdrawal from the zone of influence of the Russian and Eurasian integration structures.

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