Which majority inside of BRICS?

It’s a fact: the trade partnership known as BRICS+ is on its way to becoming the largest partnership in the world, and undoubtedly also the most important one, not only from a trade perspective but, more importantly, politically and potentially strategically. Whether merging with the SCO or sticking exclusively to current objectives, the BRICS+ are the strongest international attraction and represent an alliance of poles, dictating the first rules of a multipolar world. The numerous membership applications, both informal and formal, will soon be discussed at the Kazan 2024 Plenary Summit in November, and there is one very important detail that few have noticed.

The BRICS will have a Muslim majority

As in all self-respecting groups, it’s inevitable to create hierarchies and to give themselves a management and operational order. Even the BRICS, according to statute, have an annually rotating presidency. Although the partnership was born with – we repeat – commercial purposes, it’s equally true that the economy in the 20th and 21st centuries has become the driving force behind politics (the structure influencing the superstructure, Karl Marx would have said). So, let us look at the current political situation in the BRICS and reason about what is going to happen.

Currently, the world’s ‘coolest’ partnership consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, joined by Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. According to these figures, the political dimension is decisively linked to the religious one: UAE and Iran are declaredly confessional countries, in this case Islamic; Brazil, Russia, South Africa and Ethiopia have a Christian majority (of various denominations); India has a Hindu majority, China has a large number of Taoists, Confucians and Buddhists, although it is an atheist country by constitution. We are faced with a well-organised balance, where there is no factual predominance of one religious or ethnic-religious group over the others, even from a numerical point of view.

If, however, we look at the countries that have applied for membership, something interesting happens: we are talking about more than 40 states, 32 of which have formally applied for membership, which will be discussed at the Kazan summit. Of these, as many as 28 are with an Islamic majority.

So?

This means concretely that BRICS+ will be an Islamic majority partnership, should the applicant states all be admitted.

What consequences can this have? After all, we are talking about religions, not politics or trade. And yet this is not the case. The countries in question are profoundly linked to the religious dimension, which, seen on an international scale and in a multipolar context of States-Civilisations, and no longer States-Nations according to the Westphalian model, becomes one of the main reasons for political choices.

Iran and Israel

Let us now consider one of the most significant scenarios for this shift: the Israeli question… as seen from Iran.

Over the past few months, Iran has repeatedly reaffirmed its determination to put an end to the genocide that Israel has been carrying out in Palestine and the occupied territories, not only since October 2023 but for long, long decades. The issue is exquisitely religious, because the liberation of Al-Quds (Jerusalem) has an eschatological character, which is also shared by Christians. The Resistance Front, in which several Middle Eastern countries and religious denominations have taken part, has always worked in this direction.

Nevertheless, Iran is a historically peaceful and diplomatically very cautious and precise country; it does not venture into provocations, does not employ aggressive rhetoric, and does not take decisions casually. Everything is always very consistent with the theological-political doctrine of Shia Islam and the Supreme Leader.

In this case, Iran in this year 2024 has been waiting for something to change. A change had to take place so that a real revenge could be enacted. Israel, for its part, has never stopped accusing Iran of provoking and carrying out attacks, trying to strike at the heart of the institutions and the ideal struggle of the Iranian people. Iran has never ceased to represent an alternative to the influence of the West as well as the East, a true model of autonomy and independence, making itself the standard-bearer of the battle against the Zionist and globalist beast, the ‘Great Satan’ as it is called. The long-awaited change, perhaps, has finally come.

With a Muslim majority in the BRICS+, Iran can aspire to have greater influence in the decisions that determine the political (and strategic) choices of the partnership countries. Moreover, Palestine has taken the step of applying for formal membership in the BRICS+, which is a move of profound political significance, calling into question all those countries in the partnership that have not expressed a clear position on the matter.

Let us try to imagine the scenario: Iran decides to respond to Israel and undertakes its own special military operation to liberate Palestine; the Islamic countries of the BRICS+, if they are truly Islamic, find themselves unable to do anything but support the battle – and if they do not, there is a risk that their domestic politics will be undermined. The Palestinian issue is one that belongs to all Islamic peoples. At this point, what can other countries do? What will Russia or China do? There is also a strictly geographical aspect: many of Israel-Palestine’s neighbouring countries have applied for membership, as have several African and Caucasian countries. Practically the only side that would remain uncovered, for Israel, would be the Mediterranean. A real encirclement that leaves little chance of escape. A truly well-orchestrated soft power move. Not to mention the commercial significance of all this: the West that supports Zionism would be practically excluded or at any rate subjected to the commercial control of an alliance of anti-Zionist countries.

An important question remains open: what will Russia do? The alternating leadership of the partnership has so far led to a very balanced economic (and other) policy directed towards a perfectly ‘global north’ style, while we are now facing the advent of a ‘global south’ style leadership that could significantly overturn many geo-economic and strategic perspectives for the next 6 years at least.

Now many more elements are aligned. The BRICS+ can truly become a political power with global influence.

If Iran takes advantage of this opportunity, something that has never happened before will happen: checkmate.

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