Total war between Macron and Erdogan?

Erdogan would have as an unequivocal objective the implementation of the Islamist-Erdoganist State in 2016, which would mean the termination of the Secular State that in 1923 implanted the Father of Modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal, who believed that “secularism and the Europeanization of Turkey were the most suitable means to transform their country into a modern industrial nation”, with which Kemalism left as an inheritance an identity crisis in Turkish society (Europeanized but not integrated into European institutions and Muslim but foreign to the Islamic world). Turkey would be de facto an autocratic regime, a kind of invisible dictatorship supported by solid strategies of cohesion (mass manipulation), control of the media and social repression, obvious symptoms of a totalitarian drift. Thus, the implementation of the Islamist-Erdoganist state would be reflected in brushstrokes such as the implementation of the teaching of the Koran in primary school and restrictions on freedom of expression in the form of imprisonment of opposition journalists (according to Reporters Without Borders, Turkey would rank 154 out of a total of 180 countries in the World Press Freedom Index in 2020).

Erdogan's new geopolitical doctrine In effect, Erdogan's new geopolitical doctrine aims to stop gravitating in the Western orbit and become a regional power, which implies that loyalty to Anglo-Jewish interests in the Middle East would be in question due to Erdogan's foreseeable support for the faction. Palestinian Hamas and the Muslim Brothers and the consequent confrontation with Israel and Egypt as well as the all-out war declared against the Kurdish PPK and its Syrian ally the PYD that would clash with the new geopolitical strategy of the United States for the area. Erdogan's obsession would be to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish autonomy in Syria that serves as a platform for the PKK, so the Turkish Congress would have approved a law that allows the Turkish Army (TSK) to enter Syria and Iraq to fight "terrorist groups", a euphemism that would encompass not so much ISIS as the PKK and the Kurdish-Syrian PYD, ally and brother of the PKK.

Erdogan refused to participate in the Western sanctions against Moscow and bought HQ-9 antiaircraft defense missiles from China and expressed his desire to integrate into the New Silk Road allowing investments from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) so that Erdogan would be an obstacle to the design of the new US doctrine. Thus, the US would be studying implementing the so-called Biden-Gelb Plan, approved by the US Senate in 2007 and rejected by Condolezza Rice, Secretary of State with George W. Bush, which envisaged the establishment in Iraq of a federal system in order to to avoid the collapse in the country after the withdrawal of American troops and proposed to separate Iraq into Kurdish, Shiite and Sunni entities, under a federal government in Baghdad charged with guarding the borders and managing oil revenues. The new Kurdistan will have the blessings of the United States and will have financial autonomy by owning 20% of the operations of the total Iraqi crude oil with the “conditio sine qua non” of supplying Turkey, Israel and Eastern Europe with Kurdish oil through the Kirkust oil pipeline leading to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

Total war between Macron and Erdogan?

The Turkish Army (TSK) plays an important political role in the shadow, since they are considered the guardians of the secular and unitary nature of the Republic following the Kemalist postulates and the political parties judged as anti-secular or separatist by the Turkish Judicial Power (at the behest of the military establishment), they can be declared illegal. Already on the eve of the election of Abdullah Gül as President of Turkey (August 2007), the Armed Forces affirmed that “they will intervene decisively in the defense of secularism in the face of the efforts of certain circles to undermine the fundamental values of the republic that have clearly increased in recent times”, a warning close to the rhetoric of the 1980 Military Coup and that could be extrapolated to the current political situation characterized by the repression and restriction of freedoms and the military conflict in Nagorno Karabakh initiated by Azarbaiyan that would have the blessings of Erdogan and the frontal rejection of both Russia and the US. Likewise, the Turkish intervention in Libya to install a military base that will facilitate control of the Mediterranean gas routes and thus torpedo the construction of the EastMed underwater gas pipeline, (a joint initiative of Greece, Cyprus and Israel to transport gas from the oil fields of the South-Eastern Mediterranean to Europe) and to become, together with Russia, the sole suppliers of gas to the European Union. In this context, invoking international law, Turkey demanded from Greece and Cyprus an exclusive economic zone (EEZ), to exploit the important gas reserves in the area, an attempt that collided with the frontal opposition of France that sent military ships, with which that Erdogan would have earned the enmity of Macron and the rest of the European Union.

All this, coupled with the collapse of the Turkish lira (25% this year) and popular discontent in the face of the looming economic recession, could cause the Turkish army (TSK) to carry out a new “virtual” or “postmodern” coup. that would end Erdogan's mandate, (recalling the 'soft coup' of 1997, when Kemalist generals seized power from the government of President Necmettin Erbakanpor, who led an Islamist coalition). This coup would have the blessings of Washington and Moscow as Erdogan has become an international pariah, since the new geopolitical strategy of the Pentagon will be based on the implementation of "virtual or postmodern coups" in the countries of the area (Egypt) with the objective to replace the Islamist regimes that emerged from the polls by presidential military regimes in the framework of the new world geopolitical scenario that emerged after the return to recurrent endemism of the Cold War between the US and Russia, leaving Syria and Turkey as continental aircraft carriers of Russia and the US respectively.