Re-engaging South Asia: Trump’s Path to Balancing Regional Stability and Strategic Interests

Donald Trump has made an extraordinary comeback as the 47th President of the United States. Predictions are already swirling about what Trump 2.0’s foreign policy will look like. Analysts are engaged in a guessing game, as his first term in the Oval Office was unpredictable—if not whimsical—in terms of foreign policy decisions. However, the global landscape has shifted significantly since his last administration. Three major conflicts are ongoing in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon; tensions between Iran and Israel threaten to spark a broader conflict; detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as Saudi-Houthi reconciliation, have altered the Gulf’s security dynamics; new geopolitical alignments have emerged in Africa; and the U.S.-China trade and technology rivalry has intensified. During his campaign, Trump pledged to end wars and adhere to an "America First" policy. Many believe that, in his second term, his foreign policy would build on his previous administration's "America First" approach, prioritizing nationalism, economic protectionism, and a transactional approach to international alliances.

During his previous presidency, Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach toward South Asia was characterized by a blend of transactional diplomacy and strategic balancing, especially in managing relationships with India and Pakistan. With Trump’s recent return to office, time will tell how he chooses to engage with this complex region, particularly with India and Pakistan, which play critical roles in U.S. strategic interests. During his previous term, Trump pursued interest-based relationships, leveraging India as a counterbalance to China while engaging with Pakistan primarily for counterterrorism in Afghanistan. This time around, Pakistan may not be a priority, while Trump's business-oriented approach suggests he could focus more on trade relations with India. Under Trump, great-power competition will remain a key influence on his approach, although there may be some shifts in bilateral relations within the region.

Due to Donald Trump’s unpredictable diplomatic style, his second term could bring renewed tensions, strategic realignments, and diplomatic shifts that will affect countries across the South Asia region. For South Asian states, Trump’s election brings both hope and anxiety. However, his eccentric diplomacy, often characterized by bold moves and aggressive approaches, could create an environment of uncertainty throughout the region. As a result, South Asian states, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, are closely monitoring how his second term will influence the political and diplomatic landscapes of the region. In 2017, the Trump administration introduced two new foreign policy frameworks that placed South Asia at the forefront. The first, the "South Asia Strategy," outlined an approach to the prolonged conflict in Afghanistan, emphasizing the roles of Pakistan and India in achieving success. The second, the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” strategy, expanded the geographic scope of the Asian region to include India and advocated for a rules-based order in the region. Both strategies demonstrated significant continuity with the policies of previous U.S. administrations.

Likewise, India emerged as a key ally in Trump’s South Asia strategy, united by a shared interest in countering China’s growing influence in the region. U.S. President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi developed a close bond that strengthened ties in trade and defense. The Trump administration reinforced a more robust Indo-Pacific strategy, positioning India as a counterbalance to China. Defense cooperation received a significant boost, with the U.S. and India signing the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) in 2020, enhancing information-sharing on strategic military assets. However, Trump’s relationship with India was not without challenges. Trade disputes arose as Trump sought to address trade imbalances by imposing tariffs on Indian goods, leading to retaliatory measures from India. Despite these tensions, Trump’s India policy largely prioritized strategic alliances over economic discord. Therefore, it is expected that in a second term, Trump may continue to expand defense and intelligence ties while working to negotiate a more favorable trade balance.

However, Pakistan recognizes the importance of the US as a global power, especially with the re-election of Donald Trump, whose policies have previously had a significant impact on the region. There is hope that the new US administration will engage constructively with Pakistan, respecting its sovereignty and acknowledging its efforts to combat terrorism and foster stability in South Asia. During Trump’s first tenure, Pakistan played a crucial role in the US war in Afghanistan, facilitating key operations and providing vital support, including our significant contributions to the safe extrication of Afghans who had allied with US forces. Pakistan stands ready to engage positively with the Trump administration on issues of mutual interest, including global peace and economic collaboration, while maintaining an independent stance that reflects our national priorities. Pakistani nation is determined to move beyond the past policy mistakes and focus on a brighter future, striving to re-establish ourselves as a stable, progressive partner on the global stage. The people of Pakistan remain resilient, hopeful that with strategic guidance and international support, our nation will navigate this complex period and return to a path of sustainable growth and prosperity.

With numerous pressing issues already on his agenda, Trump may not prioritize Pakistan. United States and Pakistan relations during his first term were tumultuous. Trump conditioned economic ties on Pakistan taking stronger action against terrorist groups, and relations soured in January 2018 when Trump posted a provocative tweet accusing Pakistan of “lies and deceit” in its dealings with the U.S. This led to the suspension of $1.3 billion in security assistance. However, a reset in relations occurred the following year, driven by a transactional approach centered on Pakistan’s role in the Afghan peace process. The Biden administration, however, pursued a policy of ‘low engagement,’ as Pakistan was not a major focus of its National Security Strategy. Trump is likely to continue a similar approach unless a new geostrategic development increases U.S. interest in the region. A potential Trump re-engagement with Pakistan would balance counterterrorism priorities with regional stability, while carefully navigating tensions with India over Kashmir and ties with China. His focus on strategic defense and security cooperation with India, alongside a transactional approach to Pakistan emphasizing regional stability, could guide future U.S. policy. The goal would be to sustain U.S. influence in South Asia by managing the complex dynamics between the two nations.

In conclusion, improving relations with the United States under Trump's new administration requires India and Pakistan to adopt pragmatic and forward-looking strategies that align with America's evolving priorities. Both nations must demonstrate their commitment to counter-terrorism, economic collaboration, and regional stability while addressing key bilateral concerns with maturity. India should leverage its growing economic ties and strategic partnerships to reinforce mutual interests, particularly in technology and defense sectors. Pakistan, on the other hand, must focus on rebuilding trust by showcasing tangible progress in combating terrorism and fostering regional peace. By emphasizing diplomacy, shared interests, and constructive dialogue, both nations can redefine their relationships with the U.S., fostering partnerships that contribute to global stability and prosperity.