Indo-US 2+2 Dialogue

Mid-April saw high-level, intense meetings between India and US - as PM Modi and President Biden announced a surprise virtual summit to take place just before talks between Indian Minister of External Affairs Jaishankar, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and their US counterparts Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. This year’s summit format dialogue came amid the looming threat of nuclear war in Ukraine. India and US receive a reality check as they intensify talks in Washington: agree to disagree on Ukraine, announce agreements on other fronts. As US Defence and Foreign Secretaries visited India last year to attend 3rd round of dialogue, this is the first 2+2 Ministerial held since Biden administration took over.

The dialogue was seen as pivotal as India has refused to bow down before Western and US pressure to condemn Russian aggression in Ukraine. The Indian government also denied US request to stop importing Russian oil. Last but not the least, India had also refused to endorse US and EU sanctions, and to negotiate a payment mechanism to work around the sanctions through Rupee-Rouble payments. These Indian actions severely damaged Western efforts to put more economic pressure on Russia.

So if Biden called India shaky amongst Quad members on Russia, US State Department Official Wendy Sherman said Washington would like India to move away from its partnership with Russia, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said she is deeply disappointed by the decision on buying oil, Deputy NSA Daleep Singh came to India and suggested there would consequences to India’s sanctions subversion, Director of White House National Economic Council, Brian Deese said Singh told India that consequences of a more explicit strategic alignment with Moscow would be significant and long-term.

During 2+2 ministerial dialogue, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - and India’s disinterest in taking a hard position - dominated headlines. But in the days ahead of the actual visit, US policymakers refocused attention on the upside to the relationship: our shared concerns about the future of Asian security. While the Biden administration played the god cop, it slipped badly when Secretary of State Antony Blinken decided to raise the issue of human rights in India despite the matter not being discussed at all during the April 11 meetings.

Despite important announcements outlined in the joint statement after the dialogue, areas of tension remain. Perhaps most importantly, US didn’t clarify path ahead on potential application of sanctions against India under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). This is in reaction to India’s long-pending purchase of Russian-made S-400 missile defense systems. While the purchase predates Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the invasion makes sanctions relief more difficult. Apart from a clear pathway forward on CAATSA sanctions, other key issues remain in limbo. The two sides did not announce the plans to resume tri-service military exercise, Tiger Triumph. The exercise was first launched in 2019 to great fanfare but has not been held since. Also, longstanding commercial disputes did not receive a mentioned in the statement.

While the 2+2 ministerial dialogue is not meant to handle the day-to-day commercial issues, the business communities in both nations remain concerned that the list of commercial disputes continues to increase. In the aftermath of the recent geostrategic situation of the region, Pakistan has gotten the opportunity to engage with Russia on 2+2 format dialogue to mend further differences and strengthen their economic and strategic partnership which is now key to the regional integration. Both Pakistan and Russia are having a convergence of interests in some core strategic areas, which will further provide more potential for bilateral cooperation between the two countries.

Likewise, the recently concluded Indo-US two plus two dialogue has also exposed Washington biased policies when it comes to impose sanctions on other countries and pressurize them. Like, recently India categorically refused to oblige US and Western states in acting against Russia. India not voted against Russia at UNGA and UNSC. Despite these bold actions to deny American requests, Biden administration has failed to impose sanction on India under CAATSA. On the other hand, US and Western states are vehemently putting pressure on other states who are siding with Russia or acting as neutral states. It is pertinent to mention here that Western and US actions against developing countries have become rampant. They are dealing with India through economic prism while smaller and less developed states are increasingly becoming prey of their hostile and discriminatory approaches.

Consequently, Pakistan must enhance its strategic bonding with Russia, China and Turkey in order to accomplish its strategic and economic objectives as US led Western block has so far failed to recognize Pakistan’s pivotal role, its positive and leading role in Afghanistan peace process and its sacrifices in US-led war against terror. The recent American policy towards Pakistan has given us an ample opportunity to look beyond Western camp for economic, political and strategic cooperation. Increasing strategic bonding with Russia will help Pakistan in resolving outstanding disputes with India as Moscow has also strong strategic ties with India. Because, the sole objective of Indo-US two plus two dialogue is to put pressure on Russia and China and stop their economic and strategic progress in the region.