Geopolitics of the Austrian Presidential Elections

On Sunday 22nd of May, the second round of Presidential elections took place in Austria. The two main candidates were right wing Norbert Hofer and leftist Alexander Van der Bellen. The race was close while both received circa 50% with a difference of about 0.9%.  Absentee ballots, which will be counted on Monday, could be decisive. Austria is a parliamentary Republic, but the president has important powers. For example, he is the Supreme Commander, appoints the chancellor, and can dissolve the lower house of parliament.

The candidate of the Austrian Freedom Party (FPO) Norbert Hofer won the first round of presidential elections in the Alpine republic; he received 36% of the vote. Former "Green" spokesperson Alexander Van der Bellen claimed second place in the first round. These results show the growing potential of the eurosceptic FPO, as well as disenchantment in ruling elites, while candidates from the conservatives and Social Democrats, who traditionally took turns with one another for the country’s leadership, received only 11% in the first round of election and didn’t pass into the second round.

Positions of the candidates

Both candidates that fought in the second round represent different alternatives of Austria’s future. Norbert Hofer is a self-proclaimed Margaret Thatcher fan in economics and an opponent of mass migration. Also, he promotes gun-ownership as a tool to make Austrians safer. In foreign relations he opposes the anti-Russian sanctions as well as the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, and wants to recognize Crimea as Russian. He is supported by Austrian businesses, which have suffered losses because of the sanctions war between the EU and Russia, and ordinary people scared of mass migration and the loss of Austria’s sovereignty in the EU. He also received endorsement from the Catholic Church. Salzburg Bishop Andreas Laun called for prayers for Hofer’s victory, saying Van Der Belen is on the wrong side.

Hofer wants to raise the status of the President of Austria and pledges to dissolve parliament. In the case of early elections, the most likely winner will be the Austrian freedom Party, which is now leading in the polls. Thus, Hofer’s victory will secure the chair of Austrian Chancellor for the party’s boss Heinz Christian Strache.

Alexander Van der Bellen, descendent of the family of Russian Empire nobles of Dutch origin, belongs to the leftist Green party and is not likely to support the lifting of anti-Russian sanctions. He is pro-EU and argues for more refugees in the country. Van der Bellen has no consistent political program and stresses in his campaign that he is the only alternative to the FPO candidate. Mainly minorities, sodomites, and left-wing activists and liberals who are frightened of the possibility of a Eurosceptic President support him. The Austrian Green Party has strong ties with other leftist and green parties within Europe as well as the globalist leftist network of George Soros, which promotes an anti-national agenda. He pledges that he will not appoint Strache as Prime minister if his party wins the parliamentary elections. Thus, the victory of Van der Bellen will mean the introduction of open liberal totalitarianism in Austria.

FPO’s success

The Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ) is a conservative, eurosceptical party that supports the restricting of migration and the protection of national sovereignty and the Austrian identity. The party consistently opposes the anti-Russian sanctions and supported the reunification of Crimea with Russia. The party's popularity is growing against the background of the EU’s problems, and managed to take second place in the elections to the Landtag of Vienna last year.

The Austrian Freedom Party’s unprecedented results show a growth in eurosceptical sentiment among the population. Despite the aggressive liberal propaganda, which depicted Norbert Hofer as a “neo-nazi” by comparing him with Hitler, he is now one step away from the President’s chair. The main reasons for the discontent in the EU are the refugee crisis and the sanctions against Russia, which have affected Austrian businesses. Austria became a neutral country after World War II, and its citizens do not like the fact that the bureaucrats in Brussels now determine the country’s foreign policy. In the event of the FPO’s victory, the country’s relations with the EU may seriously change.

Austria and the EU

Austria joined the EU in 1995. The contradiction with the Union started even during the early period of Austria’s membership. In 1999, the right conservative Freedom Party of Austria (Ger. Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs {FPÖ}) took second place by a narrow margin in the federal election. As soon as the election results were announced, EU member states and the EU followers demanded that Haider (leader of the party at the time) was banned from participating in the political life of the country, and also put into question the sanctions against Austria. The European Union had no legal grounds for either the first claim (to discharge Haider) or the second one (in the end, the EU Member States introduced bilateral sanctions).

Such rough European Union interference in Austria’s internal affairs caused a number of the anti-EU protests in the country, and led to the rapid growth of euro-skeptical sentiment among Austrians.
The new wave of euroscepticism caused the migration policy of the European Union, whose base is formed from the principle of rejecting any form of collective identity. The EU’s “tolerance” policy and the principle of the free borders and free movement within the European Union led to a critical imbalance between native Europeans and immigrants, and created a breeding ground for the creation of radical Islamist structures (which led to tragic events: terrorist attacks in Paris and the sex attacks in Cologne).

The right-conservative Austria was dissatisfied with the "all-European" solution to the illegal migration issue. In early January, the Chancellor Werner Faymann demanded a revision to the Schengen rules in Austria.

“Similar to Germany”, Austria is to control its border strictly and to carry out the expulsion of refugees, said Faymann, adding, “Anyone who arrives at our border is subject to control.” According to him, "all refugees must be controlled; economic migrants must be sent to the countries of their origin." In February, Austria, together with Balkan states (Croatia, Slovenia, Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia), blocked the so-called “Balkan route” for migrants.

Faymann’s position on migrants on the one hand provoked discontent within his own Social Democratic party, with left-liberals rejecting it and demanding uncontrolled migration, and on the other was perceived by the population as unsatisfactory, as the majority wanted a tougher stance on migrants. It resulted in a growth of the FPO’s support, and a decline of Social Democrats’ support. The EU’s pro-migrant pressure contributed to Faymann’s dismissal two weeks ago. The victory of FPO may seriously endanger the country’s relations with the EU. Moreover, the situation of 1999 when the governments of EU countries introduced economic sanctions against Austria because of the FPO’s participation may repeat itself. The right eurosceptics, who defend national identity and traditional values, are more dangerous for the left-liberal elite, which usurped power within the EU, than the ultra-left Greens, who support the same liberal agenda in the realm of values.

Austria on the geopolitical map

Austria, together with Germany from a geopolitical point of view, forms the core of "Middle Europe” (Mitteleuropa). However, unlike Germany, Austria adheres to neutrality and is not a member of NATO, which gives the country the opportunity to behave more independently in the international arena. Historically, this region was the basis of European Continentalism. A prominent representative of the Austrian continentalist geopolitical school was Baron Heinrich Jordis von Lohausen (1907-2002). From his point of view, a strong and independent Europe is impossible without a union with Russia - this is an objective rule of geopolitics.

The Eurocontinentalist position was always strong in Austria. In the EU’s conflict with Russia, Austria was one of the countries that advocated for the lifting of sanctions. It is important that the Austrian military were among those who continued friendly relations with Russia. The head of the Austrian General Staff Lt. Gen. Othmar Commenda declared that the Austrian armed forces are ready to cooperate with Russia, despite the opposite recommendations from a number of other world powers. This flank of Austrian foreign policy will strengthen if Hoffer becomes the Supreme Commander; in the opposite case the influence of the Army will diminish.

The most consistent supporters of the Euro-continentalist course of rapprochement with Russia and the abolition of the anti-Russian sanctions are the representatives of the Austrian Freedom Party. Its leader, Heinz-Christian Strache, however, in 2014, pointed out that the sanctions could cause huge damage to the economy of Austria because trade with Russia involves 30,000 jobs. In addition, the politician supported a referendum on the self-determination of Crimea.

Europe against the EU

The rise of the FPO’s popularity in Austria and the unprecedented results at the presidential election demonstrate the crisis of the EU and may trigger the process of redistribution of political power in Europe towards more sovereigntist forces.

The immigration policy of the European Union rejects, at its foundation, any form of collective identity. This has caused the intensification of ethno-social conflicts. As a result of this migration, EU politics in Europe has changed, and became populated by ethno-social groups of migrants from the Middle East, who are in fact the bearers of an archaic and stable Islamic consciousness, which is not known by the average European.

The exaggerated principles of tolerance, rights of individualism, and multiculturalism, require that the European political elites give maximum liberties to migrants and do not require anything in return. As a result of this migration policy in the EU in 2015: 1) the balance between native Europeans and migrants was broken; 2) the giant socio-cultural pole of an Islamo-Arabic population was created {the fact of its existence is fully ignored by liberal European elites, because of the absence of the criteria of a collective identity in modern European law and politics}; 3) the roots for the creation of the structures of radical Islamism were created (among the migrants were members of radical Islamic groups).

Today, Europe has started to form an alternative course of EU politics. The European Union is not able to defend European interests being a mediator of Atlanticism in Europe.
The European countries are faced with a need to develop an alternative to the “tolerant” EU policy. Back in 2015, Euroscepticism became a trend among the European parties (the National Front, The Northern League, “UKIP”, “FPÖ”, etc.). In 2016, an anti-European foundation appeared: migration policy, principle of free movement within the EU, tolerance – all these principles, which is the EU’s basis, are destructive for the cultures of European countries and directly threaten their existence.

A victory for Norbert Hofer’s FPO in the presidential elections in Austria may cause a serial change in other European countries. In the event of his victory, he will became the first Eurosceptic President from a party that was earlier stigmatized as being “far right”. Thus, the other allied Eurosceptic forces like Lega Nord in Italy and French National front will receive serious momentum towards victory. On Sunday, the leader of the German AfD Frauke Petry visited Vienna. Hofer, supporter of the ideas of German unity, will likely cooperate with her party, allowing the creation of a Pan-German Eurosceptic core and thus enabling the prospects of a new united Europe.