Escalation From Biden

Allowing Ukraine to use missiles to strike deep into Russian territory could have unprecedented consequences.

On November 17, 2024, Western media reported that the Biden administration had allowed Ukraine to use ATACMS. At the same time, the NYT publication claims that these missiles can be used to attack the military of the Russian Federation and the DPRK (North Korea) in the Kursk region. Reuters, in turn, reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to carry out the first strikes in the coming days.

However, Joe Biden himself and the White House staff refuse to comment on this topic. There are also no details from the Pentagon.

Although there is no official confirmation of this, an information wave immediately began. According to French media, France and the United Kingdom, following the Americans, also allowed Ukraine to launch cruise missiles SCALP/Storm Shadow deep into the territories of Russia. Elon Musk, commenting on media reports about Biden‘s permission to hit ATACMS missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation, agreed with the opinion that “liberals love war“, which is beneficial to “big government“. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said that the United States had “entered a phase of madness.“ And globalist Alex Soros, the son of George Soros, called the decision to allow Ukraine to launch long–range missiles on Russian territory “great news.“

Since there is still no confirmation at the official level and all the media refer to their sources, this may be fake news, that was deliberately launched on the eve of the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is also set to be present. In addition, this could be done to look at the reaction of both Russia and the US partners in NATO. And since France and the UK have also given their consent, we are talking about dragging the entire alliance into another escalation.

Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin said exactly this – that we are not talking about a specific type of weapon that is allowed to be used, but about NATO‘s involvement in a larger–scale war against Russia. And this means an imminent response to NATO countries and the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons by Russia. Note that France and the UK are also nuclear countries.

Although the use of missiles with a wider range by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is unlikely to radically change the situation on the battlefield. As well as the involvement of the first F–16 aircraft by the Ukrainian side does not actually affect the situation in any way, as evidenced by another combined attack on targets throughout Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to strike at places with accumulated military equipment, barracks and warehouses, although, given their previous actions, there is a significant risk that they will strike blindly at civilian infrastructure, as was previously done in Belgorod, Donetsk and other cities.

Most likely, one there will one strike that will go first, because NATO will want to see Russia‘s reaction. Depending on the consequences, other strikes may follow.

The most appropriate actions on the part of Russia may be as follows. First, building up the air defense capability along the line of contact. Although it will be difficult to do this, given the length of the border and the lack of complexes and specialists. Strengthening intelligence measures to record the movement of supplies of Western equipment and ammunition and promptly strike at the sites of storage and deployment of missile systems. Intensification of the remaining strikes on the territory of Ukraine to weaken the remaining military potential and undermine morale. Also an expansion of sabotage operations, both by the Russian military in the border area and by the partisans on the territory of Ukraine.

As diplomatic and political measures, Russian citizens should be officially called upon to leave the territories of France and Britain, as well as to begin the return of diplomatic personnel from these countries.

This will be a clear signal of the preparation of war with these countries and will give Paris and London one last chance to reflect on their actions and withdraw the decision (if it really was). Any export–import operations with these countries should also be suspended, whether it is the purchase of French wines and cosmetics or the shipment of liquefied natural gas to the UK. This will be an additional message to these countries.

If, nevertheless, the Armed Forces of Ukraine strike with French and/or British missiles, it is necessary to carefully consider retaliatory measures. The most sobering move will be strikes with hypersonic weapons against the military infrastructure and weapons production in these countries. It is necessary to do this actually before the inauguration of Donald Trump, so that NATO would not be able to rely on Joe Biden. Most likely, Trump will block the requests of France and Britain, along with other Russophobes, for a collective response, finding some reason. This will create an additional split within NATO. Hungary and Slovakia are also unlikely to advocate further confrontation with Russia. This scenario does not include the use of nuclear weapons. However, its use should also be borne in mind if NATO decides to continue the war with Russia.

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