The primaries in New Hampshire: the fight for an alternative

On February 9th, the US state of New Hampshire will host the second 2016 presidential primaries. Despite his defeat in Iowa, the attention is still focused on Donald Trump. He has a high level of support from the state's population, among the candidates from the Republicans. Among the Democrats, Bernie Sanders is the most popular person.

The chances of the main candidates

According to the latest public opinion polls, more than 30% of the inhabitants of the state are ready to vote for Donald Trump. His closest rivals in the fight for the post of Republican candidate are Marco Rubio, John Kasich, Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush, who received 12-14% at the polls.

Among Democrats, 52% are ready to support Bernie Sanders and 42% - Hillary Clinton.

Features of New Hampshire

A feature of New Hampshire is the leadership of anti-system candidates: Trump and Sanders. New Hampshire is one of the smallest US states, located in the northeast of the country, as part of the historical and cultural region "New England." This is a historic, but not the core of values, part of the US. The special feature of the State is the high proportion of white population - 97% (compared to the US as a whole), high industrialization (“New England" - the birthplace of the industrial revolution in the US), a significant proportion of atheists - 17%, and fewer religious people. New Hampshire is also distinguished by the high participation rate of the population in the presidential election, relative to the whole country. Education and income levels are also higher than the average in the USA.

The reduced influence of religion significantly increases the chances of Donald Trump and reduces the chances of Ted Cruz, who won in Iowa because of support from Evangelicals. High political activity of the population is also a positive factor for Trump and Sanders, who both offer an alternative to the existing US political establishment, and therefore attract a high number of people who previously did not vote in the elections, as they did not see any differences between the candidates.

Features of the primaries in New Hampshire

The primaries in New Hampshire differ significantly from the primaries in Iowa. Firstly, New Hampshire does not have the caucus procedure. This means that the vote will take place at the polling stations. Registered members of the Republican and Democratic parties will be able to vote only in their party lists, while the other citizens of the state will be able to choose on which primary - Democratic or Republican they will vote.

One of the main factors that determined the defeat of Trump in Iowa was the closed nature of the vote. The caucuses were attended only by representatives of the parties who have the strength to physically get to the venue of the meeting at 19.00. Those who are not a permanent member of the Republican Party mostly support Trump. As a rule, it is the middle class and the "blue collar” community who are disenchanted with the Democrats. Now they have a chance to support their candidate.

Features of Trump’s electorate

A feature of Trump’s campaign is that he refers not just to the traditional Republican electorate, but tends to attract the conservative part of the Democratic electorate. This applies, in particular, to the phenomenons of the so-called “Democrats for Reagan” and “Silent Majority”, who were addressed during Richard Nixon's election campaign. Basically, it is the white working-class from the northern US States. Because of the support of this stratum, Nixon and Reagan at one time won the primaries in New Hampshire, and then won the presidential election in the country.

Attention to Bernie Sanders

Bernie Sanders' success in Iowa, and his leading position in the polls in New Hampshire, also draws attention to this candidate. His main asset is his support - young people, who has not found their place in the capitalist system, and see the face of Sanders' socialist alternative.

Sanders & Trump, against interventionism

The peculiarity of the two leaders of the race in New Hampshire is their rejection of interventionist policies in other regions of the globe. Instead, they propose to focus on the internal problems of the United States. It is encouraging for representatives of other civilizations, but also disturbing for the US Democrat and Republican globalists. Trump and Sanders are the most likely winners of the forthcoming primaries, but the American elite will do anything (including electoral fraud) to defeat them

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The primaries in New Hampshire: the fight for an alternative