Duterte chooses between Japan and China

12.08.2016
Philippines

While the former president of the Philippines, Fidel Ramos, is paying a semiofficial visit to China in order to strengthen relations between the two countries and resolve accumulated contradictions, Japan is holding discussions with the current Philippine leadership on sending two Coast Guard vessels to patrol the disputed waters of the South China Sea. This is one of the measures by which the Japanese hope to prevent the strengthening of China's influence in the Philippines.

Duterte’s offer

The new president of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte, promised during his election campaign that he could compromise with China over the disputed partition of the South China Sea. In exchange for Chinese investments, Duterte offered to find a mutually acceptable solution to the issue. A decision of international arbitration from the Hague is on the side of Manila, but China ignores international institutions and, until recently, did not react to any Philippine initiatives.

Japan vs. China

Japan has taken advantage of China's delay. Japan has no claims to the South China Sea, but fears China's growing power. According to the Japanese hierarchical view of global and regional policies, China is occupying an inappropriate place in the hierarchy. Japan itself is once again seeking to claim its “rightful place” in the region, including by military means. Right-wing circles in Japan that have influence in the current government brandish the idea of an “Asian concert”, a bloc of Asian Pacific powers directed against China.

Today, Japan offered the Philippines a contract for $2 billion for reconstructing the islands’ railways, and is now promising military aid.

US Interests

The US is using Sino-Japanese confrontation to strengthen its positions. The Philippines are one of the reference points of American dominance in the region. The United States feared that pro-Chinese Duterte would win, but now the US will be able to maintain its influence without much effort if only Japan will convince the Philippine leader that it can replace China as a partner and ensure the development of the Philippine economy.

Related links
China, Japan and Multipolarity
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South-Eastern Asia and Pacific: Trends and Forecast for 2016
Duterte
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Philippines