A Coming war with Turkey?

Geopolitical duplicity of Erdogan politics
  • Turkey as a state of the Rimland zone usually balances between Atlanticist and Continentalist powers.
  • The Turkish involvement in the Syrian war and their hostility towards Assad’s government are examples of Atlanticist influence.
  • The common Turkish-Russian project 'Turkish Stream' is an example of the possibility of an opposite orientation.
  •  However the downed Russian fighter jet, that was shot down on 24.11.2015 is a sign of uppermost Atlanticist orientation of contemporary Turkey, and will be seen as more than an unfriendly act. The possible killing of two Russian pilots in ground battle will rapidly deteriorate Russian-Turkish relations.
The Turkish Stream under question
  • The future of the 'Turkish Stream' deal is unclear in these circumstances.
  • The start of construction was scheduled for December 2015 after the forming of new Turkish government. 
  • Both countries are economically interested in this sphere, and the project is mutually profitable. 80% of natural gas consumed by Turkey is Russian, the country’s tourist industry is strongly dependent on Russian tourists.  Russia is Turkey’s major import partner.
  • After the incident these strong economic ties are unlikely to bolster the development of political cooperation and strategic projects like 'Turkish Stream'.  They are to be frozen. 
Prognosis: War is unlikely
  • It is unlikely that the incident will provoke military conflict, but political and strategic ties will be cooled.
  • Ankara has room to maneuver, as it might counterbalance this anti-continentalist step by friendly actions, but presently there are no indications of this course.
  • Russia also has certain room, and it is not interested in military conflict with Turkey. There is a great possibility that Russia will make concessions.
  • NATO is to hold an extraordinary session upon Turkish request.  The possible aim – a no-fly zone in the sphere of Turkish interest.  Russian jets recently bombed some routes of ISIS-linked oil trade near the Turkish border, including the territory of Syrian Turkmen. It is known that members of Erdogan family participate in this business. Erdogan is trying to to salvage his position in Syria by putting harsh pressure on Russia, using his Atlanticist allies.